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Posted On: 02/02/2019 3:05:38 AM
Post# of 154850
I looked at your model again. Lots and lots of work. I feel all the information condensed in just a small area is probably overwhelming readers, and most are skipping over it. Maybe we can create a condensed version and you might get more useful feedback.
Combo
Fully diluted O/S 600M
MDR2+ patients 248,774x70% ccr5 =174,141
penetration 15%= 26,121 patients
26,121x$75,000 x( .70 discount price %)= $1.37B
1.37Bx4(p/s for simplicity)/600M = roughly $9 per share
Big assumptions here (which you back up with papers), 248,774 patients and 15% penetration.
Question again—Is there really 250k HAART failures with two or more drug resistances?
My opinion is the number is lower, but the penetration will be higher. We might also really be in the HAART failure category with MDs, as if they have a failing patient, I’m not sure the MD will be concerned much with the number of resistances when considering using an approved drug with great safety data like leronlimab when they have a patient failing already. The big factor there in my opinion is determining if the patient is ccr5 only. The test is a little pricey last time I looked. Since 70% are ccr5 though, I wonder if the MDs will just try it to see if it starts working with the failing HAART patients.
Combo
Fully diluted O/S 600M
MDR2+ patients 248,774x70% ccr5 =174,141
penetration 15%= 26,121 patients
26,121x$75,000 x( .70 discount price %)= $1.37B
1.37Bx4(p/s for simplicity)/600M = roughly $9 per share
Big assumptions here (which you back up with papers), 248,774 patients and 15% penetration.
Question again—Is there really 250k HAART failures with two or more drug resistances?
My opinion is the number is lower, but the penetration will be higher. We might also really be in the HAART failure category with MDs, as if they have a failing patient, I’m not sure the MD will be concerned much with the number of resistances when considering using an approved drug with great safety data like leronlimab when they have a patient failing already. The big factor there in my opinion is determining if the patient is ccr5 only. The test is a little pricey last time I looked. Since 70% are ccr5 though, I wonder if the MDs will just try it to see if it starts working with the failing HAART patients.
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