(Total Views: 868)
Posted On: 09/27/2017 11:08:06 AM
Post# of 113
trading below cash of $34 million + only 7.5 million shares outstanding + attractive product in phase 3 with results expected in 1H 2018 = The definition of a dirt cheap stock .GL
Conclusion and Valuation
The U.S. military’s intense interest in identifying safe and effective PTSD treatments is important for Tonix, as the AtEase study is the only controlled clinical trial to show a benefit in treating military related PTSD. If those results can be duplicated in the HONOR study (and Tonmya® gets approved), the Department of Defense and the VA would likely be very interested in getting the treatment to military personnel and veterans who suffer from PTSD.
Our valuation for Tonix is derived from a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model that takes into account potential future revenues from the sale of TNX-102 SL in PTSD. Of the approximately 8.6 million individuals in the U.S. who suffer from PTSD, it’s estimated that approximately 20% seek treatment. With a peak market share of only 6%, we currently estimate that peak sales of $650 million are possible. Using a discount rate of 18% and a 50% probability of approval leads to a net present value for the PTSD program of $67 million. Combined with the company’s current cash position and dividing by a reasonable fully diluted share count of 8.1 million shares leads to a valuation of approximately $13 per share.
Conclusion and Valuation
The U.S. military’s intense interest in identifying safe and effective PTSD treatments is important for Tonix, as the AtEase study is the only controlled clinical trial to show a benefit in treating military related PTSD. If those results can be duplicated in the HONOR study (and Tonmya® gets approved), the Department of Defense and the VA would likely be very interested in getting the treatment to military personnel and veterans who suffer from PTSD.
Our valuation for Tonix is derived from a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model that takes into account potential future revenues from the sale of TNX-102 SL in PTSD. Of the approximately 8.6 million individuals in the U.S. who suffer from PTSD, it’s estimated that approximately 20% seek treatment. With a peak market share of only 6%, we currently estimate that peak sales of $650 million are possible. Using a discount rate of 18% and a 50% probability of approval leads to a net present value for the PTSD program of $67 million. Combined with the company’s current cash position and dividing by a reasonable fully diluted share count of 8.1 million shares leads to a valuation of approximately $13 per share.
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