TNXP (MC $31M)(Cash $34M) Shares Out 7.5 M // Phas
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Posted On: 09/22/2017 11:26:28 AM
TNXP (MC $31M)(Cash $34M) Shares Out 7.5 M // Phase 3 Data in 1H 2018 = 1000%++ UPSIDE Potential !
Ultra Low float Gem / Trading below Cash/ Phase 3 Data in 1H 2018 //$650 Million Potential for the Drug /Stock should be at $15 right now and sky is limit on positive phase 3 outcome .TNXP is a HUGE opp at current ridiculous price .
Tonix Pharma (TNXP)
Market Cap: $31 Million
Cash: $34.5 Million
Kurs: $4.15
Shares Out: 7.5 Million
New Presentation
http://content.equisolve.net/tonixpharma/medi...b3f7c8.pdf
Phase 3 HONOR study of Tonmya in military-related PTSD enrolling
•Encouraging evidence of safety and efficacy was demonstrated in Phase 2
Breakthrough Therapy designation from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
•Expedited development and accelerated review are expected
•Potential to file NDA based on one Phase 3 study if data are statistically persuasive
Proposed registration plan agreed by the FDA
•Additional nonclinical safety and clinical abuse potential studies are not required
Patent protection through 2034 in U.S.
•Composition of matter patent for eutectic, required for transmucosal delivery of cyclobenzaprine
TNXP: Patient Enrollment Continues for Phase 3 Study of Tonmya® in PTSD; Interim Analysis Expected in 1H18
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tnxp-patient-e...00725.html
Conclusion and Valuation
The U.S. military’s intense interest in identifying safe and effective PTSD treatments is important for Tonix, as the AtEase study is the only controlled clinical trial to show a benefit in treating military related PTSD. If those results can be duplicated in the HONOR study (and Tonmya® gets approved), the Department of Defense and the VA would likely be very interested in getting the treatment to military personnel and veterans who suffer from PTSD.
Our valuation for Tonix is derived from a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model that takes into account potential future revenues from the sale of TNX-102 SL in PTSD. Of the approximately 8.6 million individuals in the U.S. who suffer from PTSD, it’s estimated that approximately 20% seek treatment. With a peak market share of only 6%, we currently estimate that peak sales of $650 million are possible. Using a discount rate of 18% and a 50% probability of approval leads to a net present value for the PTSD program of $67 million. Combined with the company’s current cash position and dividing by a reasonable fully diluted share count of 8.1 million shares leads to a valuation of approximately $13 per share.
Ultra Low float Gem / Trading below Cash/ Phase 3 Data in 1H 2018 //$650 Million Potential for the Drug /Stock should be at $15 right now and sky is limit on positive phase 3 outcome .TNXP is a HUGE opp at current ridiculous price .
Tonix Pharma (TNXP)
Market Cap: $31 Million
Cash: $34.5 Million
Kurs: $4.15
Shares Out: 7.5 Million
New Presentation
http://content.equisolve.net/tonixpharma/medi...b3f7c8.pdf
Phase 3 HONOR study of Tonmya in military-related PTSD enrolling
•Encouraging evidence of safety and efficacy was demonstrated in Phase 2
Breakthrough Therapy designation from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
•Expedited development and accelerated review are expected
•Potential to file NDA based on one Phase 3 study if data are statistically persuasive
Proposed registration plan agreed by the FDA
•Additional nonclinical safety and clinical abuse potential studies are not required
Patent protection through 2034 in U.S.
•Composition of matter patent for eutectic, required for transmucosal delivery of cyclobenzaprine
TNXP: Patient Enrollment Continues for Phase 3 Study of Tonmya® in PTSD; Interim Analysis Expected in 1H18
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tnxp-patient-e...00725.html
Conclusion and Valuation
The U.S. military’s intense interest in identifying safe and effective PTSD treatments is important for Tonix, as the AtEase study is the only controlled clinical trial to show a benefit in treating military related PTSD. If those results can be duplicated in the HONOR study (and Tonmya® gets approved), the Department of Defense and the VA would likely be very interested in getting the treatment to military personnel and veterans who suffer from PTSD.
Our valuation for Tonix is derived from a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model that takes into account potential future revenues from the sale of TNX-102 SL in PTSD. Of the approximately 8.6 million individuals in the U.S. who suffer from PTSD, it’s estimated that approximately 20% seek treatment. With a peak market share of only 6%, we currently estimate that peak sales of $650 million are possible. Using a discount rate of 18% and a 50% probability of approval leads to a net present value for the PTSD program of $67 million. Combined with the company’s current cash position and dividing by a reasonable fully diluted share count of 8.1 million shares leads to a valuation of approximately $13 per share.
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