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The prevailing wisdom in the industry is that the main factor driving the size of a deal is the stage of development—whether preclinical, clinical, or approved by regulators/on the market. However, deal values are far from formulaic: deals involving human therapeutics can range in value from tens of thousands of dollars to billions of dollars, with apparently little justification or explanation.

Here, we argue that the value of biotechnology products is determined not only by minds, but also by hearts, and frequently by actions—and in particular by savvy negotiating skills. Hard data and quantification clearly play a role, but our analysis points to a large component derived from qualitative “soft” factors and personal judgments.

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