Every trial result is a binary event for that particular drug. SYN is a reasonable comp. One drug failed and the share price took a nasty haircut. Shareholders there also thought the drug wasn't priced in. The price has rebounded some since the failure.

I never said P results were a binary event for the whole company. Stating that it might be a good idea to withhold from buying until after P results should not be an amazing conclusion. It's just prudent risk management.