Posted On: 09/09/2014 6:20:53 PM
Post# of 56324
Pork Chop-
I'm neither a supporter nor detractor of AB. After running some numbers based on the information from your post, I can see how he comes to the valuation of .55-.82 PPS, though I don't know how they can get to $10M in sales, as 535lbs x $10/gram = $2.4M. Maybe their average price per gram will be significantly higher or they'll expand their license over the next year to allow for 2000lbs or more.
To get to $0.55 PPS:
Shares - 55,000,000
Product Selling Price - $10/gram
Licensed weight - 535lbs
Facility - 3200sqft
If you consider 2lbs of product per 25sqft of grow space per cycle and allow for 6 harvests/year, you could realize up to 1000lbs of product based on a 70% space utilization of the 3200sqft. This suggests that they have ample capacity to meet the 535lbs licensed amount. If they get an average of $10/gram, that would generate $2.4M in sales. Assuming a 60% profit margin and a PE of 30, you get $0.59 PPS.
How does that compare to FITX? Our shares of 3.4Billion is ~62 times greater. To achieve the same PPS using the same PE and profit margin, we would need to generate $150M in sales (62 times greater). At let's say $7/gram, that equates to 47,000lbs of product. I don't think we're in position to crank out that much product in year 1 of operations, but this would be well within our reach once additional buildings are completed. It also doesn't take into account other revenue streams - hemp, insurance, etc. We'll get there, it just may take a bit of time.
Regards,
-kbulldog.
I'm neither a supporter nor detractor of AB. After running some numbers based on the information from your post, I can see how he comes to the valuation of .55-.82 PPS, though I don't know how they can get to $10M in sales, as 535lbs x $10/gram = $2.4M. Maybe their average price per gram will be significantly higher or they'll expand their license over the next year to allow for 2000lbs or more.
To get to $0.55 PPS:
Shares - 55,000,000
Product Selling Price - $10/gram
Licensed weight - 535lbs
Facility - 3200sqft
If you consider 2lbs of product per 25sqft of grow space per cycle and allow for 6 harvests/year, you could realize up to 1000lbs of product based on a 70% space utilization of the 3200sqft. This suggests that they have ample capacity to meet the 535lbs licensed amount. If they get an average of $10/gram, that would generate $2.4M in sales. Assuming a 60% profit margin and a PE of 30, you get $0.59 PPS.
How does that compare to FITX? Our shares of 3.4Billion is ~62 times greater. To achieve the same PPS using the same PE and profit margin, we would need to generate $150M in sales (62 times greater). At let's say $7/gram, that equates to 47,000lbs of product. I don't think we're in position to crank out that much product in year 1 of operations, but this would be well within our reach once additional buildings are completed. It also doesn't take into account other revenue streams - hemp, insurance, etc. We'll get there, it just may take a bit of time.
Regards,
-kbulldog.
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