Investment Banks Lower American Express Ratings Amid Concerns

Recent Downgrades for American Express

American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) has recently faced scrutiny from two prominent investment banks, HSBC and BTIG, which have downgraded the stock, citing valuation concerns and slowing growth fundamentals.

HSBC Cuts Rating on AXP Shares

HSBC has adjusted its rating on AXP shares from Buy to Hold. This decision comes after an impressive year for the stock, which has surged by 47% year-to-date. Over the past year, it has increased by an impressive 85%, outpacing the S&P 500 index, which has seen gains of 21% and 33% respectively.

Analysts' Perspective on American Express

HSBC's analysts have acknowledged the strength of American Express's economic footprint. They highlighted the company's manageable credit risk and its strong appeal, particularly among younger generations. Additionally, American Express's commitment to innovation and maintaining a robust brand presence were positively noted.

Concerns Over Stock Valuation

Despite these strengths, analysts expressed hesitation regarding the stock's current valuation. They noted that AXP is trading at 20.3 times the expected earnings for the next twelve months. This marks a significant increase over its 10-year average of about 15 times. Such a valuation is reminiscent of the S&P 500's higher price-to-earnings ratios, a comparison rarely observed in the last decade.

Revenue Growth Challenges

Furthermore, analysts are concerned about American Express's revenue growth trajectory. Achieving an annual growth target of 10% might prove difficult without a broader acceleration in the economy. HSBC's analysts emphasized that while the stock has performed well, it might not justifiably trade at or above market price-to-earnings multiple considering its credit portfolio and the institution's economic sensitivity.

Price Target Updates

In light of this analysis, HSBC has slightly increased the price target for American Express from $265 to $270. This adjustment reflects ongoing optimism despite the noted valuation concerns.

BTIG Downgrades to Sell

BTIG has also reevaluated its position on American Express, downgrading it from Neutral to Sell. This decision stems from concerns regarding the company's core financial metrics, which encompass billed business volume, revenue growth, net interest income, and credit trends.

Overly Optimistic Expectations

BTIG analysts believe the current stock price already incorporates overly positive projections for 2025. They argue that the expectations related to earnings per share and revenue growth are unrealistic given the prevailing economic conditions, which the company may struggle to navigate.

BTIG’s Price Objective

BTIG has decided to maintain its price target for American Express at $230, indicating a cautious approach moving forward.

Conclusion: American Express's Future Outlook

The recent downgrades by HSBC and BTIG reflect a growing caution about American Express's future performance. Investors are now left to evaluate the implications of these changes and how they might impact the company's trajectory in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions

What triggered the downgrades of American Express stock?

The downgrades were primarily due to concerns over valuation and slowing fundamentals affecting growth prospects.

Which banks downgraded American Express stock?

HSBC and BTIG are the two banks that have recently downgraded their ratings on American Express stock.

What are the new ratings for American Express from HSBC and BTIG?

HSBC downgraded AXP shares to Hold, while BTIG has downgraded them to Sell.

What is the current price target for AXP from HSBC?

HSBC has set a price target of $270 for American Express stock.

How has American Express stock performed over the past year?

American Express stock has surged by 85% over the past 12 months, showing strong performance relative to the market.

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