Identifying Middle-Skills Credential Shortages for Career Growth

Understanding the Shortage of Middle-Skills Credentials

Workers equipped with middle-skills credentials play a crucial role in society, from delivering medical services to maintaining vital infrastructure and facilitating essential business operations. With the potential to earn competitive salaries, many of these workers surpass the earnings of individuals with bachelor's degrees in comparable positions. New insights from the Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) reveal that there is a pressing need to enhance the production of middle-skills credentials, such as certificates and associate degrees, to avert impending shortages in high-demand sectors.

Research Findings on Credential Production

The study, titled Missed Opportunities: Credential Shortages in Programs Aligned with High-Paying Middle-Skills Jobs, delves into the shortfall of middle-skills credentials necessary for lucrative employment in metropolitan areas with over a million residents. It assesses the gap between the current levels of credential production and the anticipated job openings that will require these credentials until 2032. Additionally, an online tool is available to aid educational institutions and job training providers in strategic decision-making regarding program enhancements and investments.

Current Earnings and Career Growth Potential

According to Zachary Mabel, the lead author of the study, high-paying middle-skills positions are relatively uncommon, with only 25% of early-career workers earning more than their peers with degrees. Nonetheless, the demand for skilled workers in this segment is on the rise, outstripping current supply in several sectors. In areas facing these shortages, there is an urgent need for middle-skills provider programs to significantly ramp up their credential offerings to meet the anticipated labor needs.

Categorizing High-Paying Middle-Skills Jobs

High-paying middle-skills roles are defined as those in which over half of the early-career workers earn more than $53,000 annually. These workers not only enjoy higher initial salaries compared to their counterparts with bachelor's degrees but also experience substantial wage growth over their careers, with median earnings expected to soar to $80,000 by mid-career. CEW’s research identifies 107 of these lucrative middle-skills positions spanning various sectors such as blue-collar jobs, healthcare, management, protective services, and STEM fields, with a total of 349 programs paving the way towards these high-paying careers.

Identifying Where Shortages Will Occur

The blue-collar sector is projected to face the most severe shortages of qualified workers, with 52 out of the 55 analyzed metro areas expected to experience this challenge. If there is no increase in credential production aligned with these professions, an alarming shortfall of 360,000 credentials will occur annually by 2032, only satisfying 13% of projected demand. Cities like Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Boston are predicted to face the starkest shortages in this area.

Shortages in Other Occupations

While blue-collar positions are at risk, more moderate shortages are expected in management, protective services, and STEM fields. 39 of the 55 largest metro areas are projected to face shortages in management roles, and a similar number will see deficits in protective service credentials. The STEM field will also contend with shortages, particularly in smaller markets and rural locations, resulting in only 60% of the demand being met nationally.

The Importance of Credential Availability for Economic Mobility

Jennie Sparandara from JPMorganChase emphasizes the critical role that jobs play in economic mobility, noting that well-paying roles often require a mix of skills and hands-on experience. The initiative is focused on fostering inclusive growth through backing organizations like CEW that address these issues comprehensively. This includes supporting programs that enhance access to necessary credentials, skills training, and real-world job experiences, thereby preparing individuals for successful career paths.

Healthcare Sector's Unique Position

Interestingly, the healthcare sector appears to have an oversupply of credentials for high-paying middle-skills jobs. As demand for bachelor's degree holders in healthcare roles rises, the representation of middle-skills workers has sharply declined from 46% in 2010 to just 25% in 2022. This trend suggests that by 2032, only 10% of the workforce in these healthcare roles will consist of middle-skills workers if current trajectories continue.

Confronting the Credential Shortage

While some metropolitan areas will thankfully avoid significant shortages, others must brace for considerable challenges in credential availability. Kathryn Peltier Campbell from CEW asserts that areas reporting shortages will need to drastically bolster their program capacity to meet burgeoning local labor demand through 2032.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are middle-skills credentials?

Middle-skills credentials include educational certifications such as certificates and associate degrees that prepare workers for specific jobs, often in high-demand fields.

Why is there a shortage of middle-skills credentials?

The shortage arises from a mismatch between the growth in available high-paying jobs and the slow increase in educational programs that provide the necessary training.

Which sectors are most affected by these shortages?

The blue-collar, management, protective services, and STEM sectors are facing the most significant shortages of credentialed workers.

How can organizations help alleviate these shortages?

Organizations can increase funding for educational programs, develop partnerships with educational institutions, and enhance access to hands-on training opportunities.

What impact do these shortages have on the economy?

The credential shortages hinder economic mobility and growth, as businesses struggle to find qualified candidates to fill critical roles, potentially stalling economic developments.

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