Goldman Sachs Lowers Etsy Rating, Predicts 9% Stock Decline

Goldman Sachs Lowers Assessment of Etsy

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its outlook on Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), downgrading the stock to a Sell recommendation. This decision comes in light of ongoing challenges that Etsy faces in maintaining growth and competing in an increasingly crowded market.

Price Target Adjustments

As a result of this downgrade, Goldman Sachs has revised its price target for Etsy from $70 down to $45. This adjustment indicates a potential downside of 9% based on the company's current stock valuation.

Downgrade Justification

The analysts at Goldman Sachs have provided insights into their reasoning behind this decision, highlighting three primary concerns. Firstly, they note that gross merchandise sales (GMS) have shown a sustained decline that is more extensive than they had initially anticipated, which raises doubts about the company's return to stable growth.

Market Share Concerns

In addition, Goldman Sachs forecasts that Etsy will likely continue to lose market share within the global eCommerce sector. They highlighted that the Etsy Marketplace's share of overall eCommerce sales outside of China is under pressure, primarily due to slow growth in new active buyers and fierce competition from other platforms.

Potential Earnings Revisions

Another significant area of concern for the investment bank revolves around potential downward earnings revisions. They caution that adjustments to the Street's EBITDA estimates might occur if the negative GMS trends continue or if the company opts to increase its growth investments, which could impact its valuation.

Etsy's Year-to-Date Performance

The stock has experienced a substantial decline this year, with a reported 39% drop year-to-date. Given this performance, Goldman Sachs remains skeptical, emphasizing that the risk/reward profile for investors is currently unfavorable, especially if there are additional downward revisions to medium-term revenue forecasts.

Comparative Analysis with Peers

Despite the cautious outlook for Etsy, Goldman Sachs contrasts its projected decline with a more favorable pretext for other internet companies, noting that the average upside projection across their coverage of US Internet stocks stands at around 30%. This comparison further underscores the firm’s concerns regarding Etsy's market positioning and future growth prospects.

Conclusion

In summary, Goldman Sachs has taken a more conservative stance on Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), reflecting significant concerns about its growth trajectory and competitive position in the market. As investors look for indicators of stability within the eCommerce space, it remains essential to keep an eye on how Etsy navigates these challenges moving forward.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Goldman Sachs' new price target for Etsy?

Goldman Sachs has lowered its price target for Etsy from $70 to $45, indicating a potential downside of 9%.

Why did Goldman Sachs downgrade Etsy?

The downgrade was based on persistent declines in sales, concerns over market share loss, and the possibility of negative earnings revisions.

How has Etsy's stock performed this year?

Etsy's stock has declined by 39% year-to-date, which reflects the challenges the company has faced in the market.

What does a Sell rating mean?

A Sell rating suggests that analysts believe the stock's price may fall and that it may not be a good investment at the current levels.

How does Etsy's outlook compare to its competitors?

Goldman Sachs noted a negative outlook for Etsy compared to a positive average of 30% upside projected for other internet stocks in the same coverage.

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