Equity Trends Amid Election Night: Insights from Investment Advisors

Equity Trends Amid Election Night: Insights from Investment Advisors

Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) are expressing heightened concerns about the current economic outlook compared to earlier this year. The latest Economic Outlook Index, released by Security Benefit in collaboration with Greenwald Research, indicates a decline in RIA sentiment regarding economic conditions. The index, measured on a scale from 0 (extremely pessimistic) to 100 (extremely optimistic), has decreased from a stable 58 to 53. This reflects a growing apprehension about the financial landscape as we move closer to the election season.

Adapting Strategies in a Volatile Market

As the year progresses, RIAs have begun to adjust their strategies in response to increasing market volatility. Mike Reidy, National Sales Manager for the RIA Channel at Security Benefit, stated that markets tend to react negatively to uncertainty. With many political factors at play, including the impending election, advisors are focused on creating robust client strategies that emphasize long-term growth while also ensuring downside protection.

The Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions

Recent decisions from the Federal Reserve have significantly influenced market sentiments. After a substantial half percentage point rate reduction, about 24% of RIAs anticipate four or more additional rate cuts in the next few months. This shift in expectations suggests that advisors are preparing for a potentially shifting economic environment as they look to safeguard their clients' investments.

Changing Perceptions on Recession Likelihood

The survey also highlights a notable change in the perception of recession risks among RIAs. In an earlier survey, 42% considered a moderate likelihood of recession within the next year. This figure has now surged to 52%, accentuating the rising fears within the advisory community. Annuities are now viewed as a viable option for clients who are wary of recession impacts, providing opportunities for earning while protecting principal investments.

Election Countdown: Market Expectations

As the presidential election approaches, historical data suggests that, despite potential volatility during electoral processes, markets often show resilience and growth over the long term. Interestingly, 86% of the advisors surveyed indicated that their investment strategies remain unchanged by the political campaigns unfolding around them, suggesting a strong commitment to rigorous investment discipline.

Impact of Election Outcomes on Equity Values

As the election date draws near, RIAs have conveyed their expectations regarding how election outcomes may influence equity values. A significant portion, nearly 60%, believes that a victory by former President Trump would result in rising equity values. Conversely, 51% of advisors predict that a win by Vice President Harris could lead to a decline in equity values. Such insights showcase the deep connection between politics and market movements.

Methodology of the Survey

The survey conducted by Greenwald Research in August 2024 sampled 100 registered investment advisors across the nation. These advisors manage significant assets and maintain direct interactions with clients. The results provide an extensive overview of the business practices, economic outlook, financial product usage, and demographic trends within the RIA industry, blending both qualitative and quantitative findings.

About Security Benefit

Security Benefit Life Holdings, known for its longstanding presence of over 132 years in the retirement market, plays a crucial role in providing retirement and wealth management solutions. Through its subsidiary, Security Benefit Life Insurance Company, the firm manages approximately $52.8 billion in assets and offers a breadth of products tailored for both employers and individuals. Their motto reflects their commitment: helping Americans to and through retirement.

About Greenwald Research

Greenwald Research stands as an independent leader in research and consulting services, specifically within the health and wealth industries. They utilize robust methodologies to derive vital insights that allow companies to navigate through market complexities and remain competitive. Since 1985, Greenwald's expertise has been instrumental in answering strategic business inquiries for its clients.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current sentiment among RIAs towards the economy?

RIAs are increasingly concerned about the economic outlook, as reflected in a drop in the Economic Outlook Index from 58 to 53.

How are RIAs adjusting their strategies ahead of the election?

Many RIAs are adapting their investment strategies to navigate increased market volatility resulting from election-related uncertainties.

What are RIAs predicting regarding interest rates?

Most RIAs expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts, with some anticipating four or more cuts in the upcoming months.

Is there a consensus on the likelihood of a recession?

Yes, the perception of a moderate likelihood of recession among RIAs has risen from 42% to 52% within the last quarter.

How might election outcomes affect equity values according to RIAs?

RIAs are divided, with many believing that a Trump victory would lift equity values, while a Harris win could lead to declines.

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