Economists Revise Singapore's 2024 Growth Predictions Upward
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Singapore's Economic Outlook for 2024
Economists have recently revised their expectations for Singapore's economic growth in 2024. The surge in optimism stems from a survey conducted by the local central bank, indicating that external growth factors are playing a significant role in this positive outlook.
Forecasts in Context
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducted this survey involving 21 economists, revealing a median growth forecast of 2.6% for the current year. This represents an increase from earlier estimations of 2.4% made in previous surveys held in March and June. Moreover, forecasts for economic performance in 2025 remain steady at 2.5% growth.
Reasons for Upward Adjustments
The survey results highlight that many economists do not foresee any changes in the policy framework during the MAS's upcoming review in October. They anticipate a consistent annual growth of 2.6% for the third quarter of the ongoing year. The survey conducted in September particularly noted enhancements in growth expectations across key sectors, including finance, insurance, construction, as well as wholesale and retail trade.
Trade Ministry's Growth Adjustments
In a notable turn of events last month, the trade ministry adjusted its GDP growth forecast range for 2024 between 2.0% to 3.0%, shifting from the previous range of 1.0% to 3.0%. This adjustment was influenced by a robust performance in the second quarter, where GDP growth exceeded market predictions, registering at 2.9%.
Inflation Trends in Singapore
Forecasts for key economic indicators include a median projection for headline inflation of 2.6% for 2024, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 2.8% noted in the June survey. Similarly, the core inflation forecast has also been adjusted down to 2.9% from 3.0% previously reported.
Core Inflation Insights
Recent data indicates that core inflation has declined to 2.5% in July, marking the slowest annual increase observed in over two years. The MAS has articulated expectations for core inflation to ease considerably in the last quarter of this year, with estimates projecting a range between 2.5% to 3.5% for the entire year.
Monetary Policy Stance
The MAS opted to maintain existing monetary policy settings during their July meeting. This decision marks the continuation of a policy stance that has not seen any amendments since a tightening operation in October 2022. This cautious approach reflects broader concerns regarding overall economic growth, causing the MAS to adopt a more conservative outlook for policy adjustments.
Conclusion
The revised forecasts and adjustments in Singapore's economic predictions indicate a positive trajectory supported by external growth and specific sector performances. With careful monitoring from the MAS and proactive adjustments from the trade ministry, Singapore remains on a path to recover and grow steadily in the coming years.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the revised growth forecast for Singapore in 2024?
The revised growth forecast for Singapore in 2024 is set at 2.6% according to the latest survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Which sectors showed improvement in growth expectations?
Growth expectations have improved notably in sectors such as finance, insurance, construction, wholesale, and retail trade.
What is the headline inflation forecast for 2024?
The median forecast for headline inflation for 2024 is 2.6%, showing a decrease from previous estimates.
How is core inflation performing in Singapore?
Core inflation has fallen to 2.5% as of July and is expected to ease further, with forecasts ranging between 2.5% to 3.5% for the year.
What stance does the MAS have on policy changes?
Currently, the MAS has maintained its monetary policy settings unchanged and does not foresee any alterations in the immediate future.
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