Delivery Hero Stock Rating Downgrade After Major Rally

Recent Changes in Delivery Hero's Stock Rating

Delivery Hero SE (DHER:GR) has recently navigated through a notable adjustment in its stock rating. Analysts at Citi have decided to downgrade the stock from a Buy position to Neutral. This shift comes on the heels of a remarkable 53% increase in the stock price year-to-date, indicating significant investor interest and movement.

Evolving Price Targets and Expectations

Along with the downgrade, Citi upped its price target for Delivery Hero to EUR42.00, marking a rise from the earlier EUR32.00. This change indicates that, despite the downgrade, Citi still holds a bullish outlook on the company's future trajectory. A noteworthy factor driving these adjustments is Delivery Hero’s impressive performance in recent quarters.

Improved App Trends Impacting Projections

The revised outlook from Citi stems from positive consumer behavior indicated by better-than-expected app trends. These insights have led the firm to slightly increase its revenue estimates for the food delivery giant. For the fiscal years 2024 and 2025, Citi foresees a modest growth with a projected revenue increase of 1% for FY24 and 2% for FY25.

Adjusted Earnings and Growth Forecasts

Changes have also been made to the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, reflecting an anticipated growth of 19% for FY24 and a smaller 3% for FY25. This marks a significant improvement from previous near-zero estimates. Such changes highlight the strengthening fundamentals of Delivery Hero's business model.

Growth Predictions for Gross Merchandise Volume

Looking into the shorter term, Citi predicts an 8% increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the third quarter of 2024, aligning closely with broader consensus expectations. This forecast suggests a healthy demand for Delivery Hero’s services across most regions, although growth may lag in Asia compared to others.

Financial Projections and Free Cash Flow Outlook

In terms of financial health, Citi envisions an adjusted EBITDA of €759 million for FY24, which exceeds the consensus estimate and falls within the guidance range set by Delivery Hero of €725-775 million. These figures underline the firm's resilience and growth potential within the competitive food delivery sector.

Free Cash Flow Expectations

Moreover, a free cash flow estimate of €87 million for FY24 indicates that Delivery Hero is on track to achieve positive cash flow, aligning with its prior guidance. This positive outlook is beneficial for investors as it reflects a company's ability to generate cash to support further investments and operational expenses.

Rationale Behind the Price Target Adjustment

The increase in price target to EUR42.00 can be attributed to these optimistic financial estimates, coupled with a notable reduction in Delivery Hero's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) from 13.5% down to 12%. Such a drop indicates a decrease in perceived investment risk, bolstered by improved yields on the company's convertible securities and a lowered beta factor.

Concluding Thoughts on Delivery Hero's Future

Overall, the recent adjustments from Citi reflect a complex yet optimistic picture for Delivery Hero. While the downgrade to Neutral might seem concerning, the rationale and improved forecasts signal confidence in the company's ongoing recovery and growth. Investors will likely keep a close eye on Delivery Hero's developments as the market evolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the downgrade of Delivery Hero's stock?

Citi downgraded Delivery Hero's stock from Buy to Neutral due to its recent stock rally of 53%. Despite this, they raised the price target, showing a balanced view.

What is Citi's new price target for Delivery Hero?

Citi increased the price target to EUR42.00 from EUR32.00, reflecting a positive outlook despite the downgrade.

How is Delivery Hero expected to perform financially in the coming years?

Citi forecasts modest revenue growth of 1% for FY24 and 2% for FY25, along with a significant increase in EPS.

What is the anticipated EBITDA for Delivery Hero in FY24?

Citi projects an adjusted EBITDA of €759 million for FY24, which is above the consensus estimate.

Should investors be concerned about the downgrade?

While downgrades can raise alarms, the adjustments in price target and financial forecasts indicate continued confidence in Delivery Hero's growth and potential.

About Investors Hangout

Investors Hangout is a leading online stock forum for financial discussion and learning, offering a wide range of free tools and resources. It draws in traders of all levels, who exchange market knowledge, investigate trading tactics, and keep an eye on industry developments in real time. Featuring financial articles, stock message boards, quotes, charts, company profiles, and live news updates. Through cooperative learning and a wealth of informational resources, it helps users from novices creating their first portfolios to experts honing their techniques. Join Investors Hangout today: https://investorshangout.com/

Disclaimer: The content of this article is solely for general informational purposes only; it does not represent legal, financial, or investment advice. Investors Hangout does not offer financial advice; the author is not a licensed financial advisor. Consult a qualified advisor before making any financial or investment decisions based on this article. The author's interpretation of publicly available data shapes the opinions presented here; as a result, they should not be taken as advice to purchase, sell, or hold any securities mentioned or any other investments. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any material, providing it "as is." Information and market conditions may change; past performance is not indicative of future outcomes. If any of the material offered here is inaccurate, please contact us for corrections.