Big Tech’s Role in Sustaining S&P 500 Growth This Quarter

Big Tech Drives S&P 500 Earnings Growth

Recent analysis reveals that the S&P 500's earnings growth during the third quarter has been significantly influenced by major technology companies. Following reports from Barclays analysts, it becomes clear that without the exceptional performance of six leading tech firms, the broader index would have struggled considerably.

Impact of Major Tech Companies

Barclays highlighted that the resurgence of Big Tech has been a defining element of the quarter. These tech titans delivered impressive earnings per share (EPS) surprises that contributed greatly to the overall statistics. The involvement of these companies helped maintain robust headline earnings figures across the sector.

A Closer Look at Earnings Performance

Analysts pointed out that, in the absence of these contributions, the rest of the S&P 500 would have exhibited disappointing year-over-year EPS growth, falling below long-term medians. Important metrics such as net margins would have remained flat, and operating leverage would have shown signs of weakness.

EPS Surprises and Revisions

The overall EPS surprise for the quarter was recorded at 7.1%, reflecting a sequential improvement that exceeded historical trends by nearly 200 basis points. However, this figure partly arises due to significant negative revisions made prior to the earnings season, which Barclays estimated boosted the surprise by approximately 120 basis points.

Market Breadth and Future Predictions

While approximately 77% of companies surpassed consensus estimates during this period, which aligns with historical averages, it marked the narrowest breadth of EPS beats since 2022. This suggests a potential shift in the earnings landscape, where only a handful of firms are driving growth.

Challenges Ahead for Non-Tech Sectors

Looking forward, Barclays expresses caution regarding the consensus expectation of 13% EPS growth for 2025. The bank believes this forecast is overly optimistic, particularly as sectors outside of technology face significant challenges due to disinflationary pressures and a slowing macroeconomic environment.

Sector Performance Outlook

Barclays emphasizes that earnings growth in the upcoming quarters is likely to favor industries such as Big Tech and Healthcare. These sectors are currently trading at lower than average premiums when measured against their 10-year median price-to-earnings ratios, suggesting room for growth as they navigate the changing economic landscape.

Conclusion

In summary, the influence of Big Tech on the S&P 500's earnings growth this quarter cannot be overstated. With their strong performance counterbalancing challenges within other sectors, the future of the index looks heavily dependent on these players' ongoing success.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Barclays report about the S&P 500's earnings growth?

Barclays noted that Big Tech significantly supported S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter, with major tech companies providing substantial EPS surprises.

How would the S&P 500 perform without Big Tech?

Without Big Tech, the S&P 500 would likely have seen lower year-over-year EPS growth, flat net margins, and negative operating leverage.

What was the overall EPS surprise for the quarter?

The overall EPS surprise for the S&P 500 was 7.1%, marking an improvement compared to historical trends.

What concerns does Barclays have about future earnings growth?

Barclays is concerned that the consensus forecast of 13% EPS growth for 2025 is overly optimistic, especially for non-Tech sectors.

Which sectors are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters?

Barclays expects Big Tech and Healthcare sectors to favorably drive earnings growth in the coming quarters.

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