Analyst Predicts Bitcoin May Exceed $130,000 by Year-End
Bitcoin Approaches Key Phase in Its Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is on the verge of a crucial moment in its four-year cycle. According to Benjamin Cowen, the founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, many are expecting a significant price surge as the year comes to a close.
The Key Developments
During a recent appearance on the David Lin Show, Cowen pointed out Bitcoin's adherence to a familiar post-election-year pattern. Historically, Bitcoin experiences a high in August, falls to a low in September, and then breaks out in October.
Projected Price Movements
Every cycle leading to the year's end has seen peaks in Q4. Cowen mentions that Bitcoin could trade between $130,000 and $140,000 come December, which he believes might signal a market top. Even in a scenario where the price approaches $180,000, he cautions that exceeding the $200,000 mark this cycle is unlikely due to diminishing returns.
Important Indicators to Watch
Cowen has highlighted two crucial indicators that could signal pivotal changes:
- A weekly close beneath the 50-week moving average (currently rising through $100,000) may indicate the end of the current bull run.
- A dip in the 2-year Treasury yield below 3.5% could signal a broader risk-off sentiment beyond cryptocurrency.
The Significance of Market Dominance
Currently, Bitcoin's dominance dipped to around 57% in September, reminiscent of previous setups in 2017, 2020, and 2021, just before a final push upward. Cowen anticipates that dominance may rise to 66% before liquidity starts to shift to altcoins. He further notes that Ethereum's recent rebound may be a temporary reversal relative to Bitcoin, likely hitting its peak against Bitcoin by early November.
Future Prospects
In looking to the future, Cowen predicts that historical patterns might repeat; the year 2026 could yield substantial drawdowns, echoing the market corrections seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. However, he identifies this as a significant buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Current Investment Approach
As of now, Cowen has allocated 80% of his portfolio in Bitcoin and 20% in Ethereum, emphasizing a strategy driven by market seasonality rather than media headlines. This method reflects a cautious yet optimistic approach as investors brace for the final act of Bitcoin's current cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions
What price range is Bitcoin expected to reach by year-end?
Analysts, including Cowen, predict Bitcoin may exceed $130,000, possibly reaching $140,000.
What indicators should investors monitor?
Key indicators to watch include the 50-week moving average and the 2-year Treasury yield rate.
How does Bitcoin's market dominance affect its price?
A decreased dominance often precedes market shifts where liquidity moves towards altcoins. Cowen expects dominance to rise before this happens.
What are the implications of historical price patterns?
Historical patterns suggest possible significant market corrections in 2026, presenting buying opportunities for long-term investors.
How is Cowen currently investing in cryptocurrencies?
Cowen has 80% of his portfolio in Bitcoin and 20% in Ethereum, focusing on seasonal trends to guide investments.
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