Generative AI's Economic Impact on Human Creators
Policy makers must safeguard creators' rights and implement transparency rules.
Financial Risks for Creators
Revenues at risk of loss for creators by 2028: 24% in music; 21% in audiovisual.
The market for Gen AI music and audiovisual content will rise from €3 billion now to €64 billion in 2028.
Revenues of Gen AI services in music and audiovisual projected at €9 billion in 2028, up from €0.3 billion now.
The first global study evaluating the economic effects of AI in the music and audiovisual realms indicates that generative AI could significantly enhance tech sector profits while endangering the income of human creators over the next five years.
Commissioned by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, which advocates for the rights of over 5 million creators, the research highlights concerning trends for human creators.
The Shifting Landscape
While generative AI providers forecast substantial revenue growth, creators may face a dramatic decline in income, with music and audiovisual sectors experiencing significant monetary losses.
A staggering projected loss of €22 billion over five years illustrates the impacts creators could face, with an estimated income reduction of 24% for music and 21% for audiovisual work by 2028. This includes approximately €10 billion in music and €12 billion in audiovisual content.
AI Market Growth
The research predicts a substantial escalation in the generative AI content sector, with its value soaring from €3 billion to an estimated €64 billion by 2028.
Future Revenue Allocations
As this market expands, the study anticipates that generative AI providers' revenue will increase significantly, totaling about €4 billion for music and around €5 billion for audiovisual content by 2028.
This revenue growth derives primarily from the unlicensed use of creators' works, reflecting a concerning trend of shifting economic value from creators to AI service providers.
Sector-Specific Impacts
For musicians, approximately 20% of revenue on traditional streaming platforms could be derived from generative AI outputs, while for music libraries, this could rise to 60%.
The audiovisual sector is likewise poised for considerable financial losses. Translators and dubbing professionals stand to lose approximately 56% of their income, with screenwriters and directors also facing revenue challenges of between 15 to 20%.
The Urgent Call for Regulation
The study provides a critical message regarding the potential consequences of lax regulations. Without a comprehensive regulatory framework, creators may face income losses from both unauthorized usage of their works and the burgeoning competition from AI-generated content.
CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus emphasizes the importance of crafting regulations that protect creators' rights in an evolving digital landscape. He urges policymakers to prioritize the welfare of creators to forge a balanced future for both human creativity and technological innovation.
Gadi Oron, CISAC Director General, states the necessity for urgent action from policymakers to protect human creators. He notes the ethical issues at hand regarding the appropriation of creators' works, which financially benefit generative AI companies without compensating the creators involved.
Shaping Future Policies
Ángeles González-Sinde Reig, a notable film director and CISAC Vice-President, stresses the need for ethical policies that ensure creators are significantly involved in decisions affecting their rights in the generative AI space.
Marcelo Castello Branco, CISAC Board Chair, highlights the importance of adapting to technological advancements while firmly supporting creators’ rights and livelihoods.
Understanding the Study's Framework
This pioneering study interweaves qualitative and quantitative analysis, assessing the impact of generative AI by exploring case studies. It aims to project market penetration rates for AI services and ultimately quantify revenue losses for creators.
Historical data and future projections stem from a blend of reliable industry benchmarks and consultations with a diverse spectrum of sector experts and representatives.
About CISAC
CISAC, also known as the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, represents a vast network of authors’ societies worldwide, advocating for over four million creators across various creative forms.
About PMP Strategy
PMP Strategy specializes in strategic management consulting across multiple sectors, including Telecoms, Media, Technology, Transportation, and Financial Services, boasting over two decades of industry expertise.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is generative AI?
Generative AI refers to artificial intelligence systems capable of creating content, such as music, art, and literature, autonomously or with minimal human input.
How does generative AI affect creators?
While generative AI can potentially create new opportunities, it poses significant risks to the livelihoods of creators by undermining traditional revenue streams and appropriating their works.
What are the projected losses for creators by 2028?
The report highlights a cumulative loss of €22 billion for creators in music and audiovisual sectors, with 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk.
What regulatory actions are recommended?
Policy makers are urged to create frameworks that ensure transparency in the use of creators' works and protect their rights against unlicensed use by generative AI systems.
What future measures can support creators?
Effective policy making centering on creator protection, fair compensation, and encouraging a collaborative environment between human creators and technology is essential.
