TSMC’s August Sales: Strong Year Over Year, Slight Month-to-Month Dip
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported August results that tell a clear story: demand is healthy and broad. Revenue rose 33% year over year, even as it slipped 2.4% from July. The month-to-month dip is modest against that backdrop, suggesting momentum remains intact and the company is still riding a firm wave of orders across its core technologies.
Revenue Details at a Glance
TSMC’s consolidated revenue for August 2024 came in at approximately NT$250.87 billion. That’s down from July’s NT$256.95 billion, but well ahead of the NT$188.69 billion recorded in August 2023. The year-to-date picture adds more context: from January through August 2024, revenue totaled NT$1,773.97 billion, up 30.8% versus the same period last year. Taken together, the numbers point to a business that is expanding at pace, even with normal month-to-month fluctuations.
What Analysts Expect for the Third Quarter
After the report, JPMorgan analysts noted that August’s strength puts TSMC on a path to potentially exceed its third-quarter guidance. They expect September revenue to be flat to slightly higher versus August. The drivers, in their view, are practical and near-term: production is ramping for processors used in the iPhone, and demand remains steady for advanced nodes, especially chips built on the N3 and N5 technologies. In short, key product cycles and leading-edge capacity are doing the heavy lifting.
How That Could Flow Through to Investor Estimates
JPMorgan also highlighted the likely impact on Street expectations. If revenue continues to build and gross margins improve—helped by price adjustments and better yields on N3—analysts may revise forecasts upward. The thesis is straightforward: stronger top-line momentum plus improving efficiency and pricing tends to translate into higher earnings expectations, which can shift the consensus view meaningfully as the year turns.
Reading the Monthly Blips: Momentum With a Note of Caution
Bernstein’s take is slightly more cautious in tone, though still constructive. They observed that TSMC’s monthly sales appear to be running ahead of third-quarter consensus, but they also pointed out that recent monthly prints have grown less predictive on their own. The reminder comes from earlier this year: January and February were notably strong, only for March to cool enough that first-quarter revenue landed at the low end of guidance. The takeaway isn’t bearish; it’s a nudge to avoid over-reading a single month. Even so, Bernstein called the current momentum significant.
Looking Out to 2025 and 2026
Bernstein projects a 24% year-over-year revenue increase for TSMC in 2025. For 2026, they flag a possible headwind if Intel scales back outsourcing—yet they also expect the introduction of N2 technology to bring AMD on board as an additional customer. On balance, that mix could keep growth in the mid-teens percentage range in 2026. Different forces—customer decisions, node transitions, timing—may push and pull in a given year, but the longer arc still points to steady expansion anchored by next-generation process leadership.
Bottom Line
TSMC’s August numbers reinforce a simple message: the business is growing, and demand for advanced semiconductor technology remains robust. There will be monthly noise; there always is. But with key production ramps underway, sustained interest in N3 and N5, and constructive reads from major analysts, TSMC enters the third quarter on solid footing. For now, the needle points up.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was TSMC’s year-over-year revenue growth in August 2024?
Revenue grew 33% year over year in August 2024, underscoring strong demand even as month-to-month results moved slightly lower.
How did August revenue compare with July and last August?
August revenue was approximately NT$250.87 billion, down 2.4% from July’s NT$256.95 billion but well above the NT$188.69 billion recorded in August 2023.
What are analysts expecting for TSMC’s third quarter?
JPMorgan believes third-quarter results could come in above prior guidance, with September expected to be flat to slightly higher month over month, supported by the iPhone processor ramp and steady demand for N3 and N5 chips.
How much has TSMC generated so far in 2024, and how does that compare to last year?
From January through August 2024, revenue totaled NT$1,773.97 billion, an increase of 30.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.
What do the long-term projections look like for 2025 and 2026?
Bernstein projects 24% revenue growth in 2025. For 2026, they see mid-teens growth, noting a possible impact from Intel’s outsourcing changes but expecting N2 to attract AMD as a new customer and help sustain momentum.
