$TECO End of Week Update The bears tried to close

$TECO End of Week Update

The bears tried to close the stock under 4.5 cents for the week to move into the money on their positions, but ended up at break even. There is very good support at 4.5 cents which is where most of them accumulated their shorts recently, and also the 20 week moving average support line is currently positioned.

The volume this week was 5.9 million shares exchanged, continuing the trend of low volume trading favoring the bears. This is the 7th week since the rally up to the 7 cent high and the bears are definitely having to deal with the margin costs.

The chart shows a doji candle at a major support level which means that we have a stalemate in price. Neither the bulls nor the bears were able to end the week with price materially in their favor.

Let's face it, the bears have pretty much hit $TECO with everything they have at this point and the price won't collapse. On the flip side, the big buyers that we need are both waiting for more news and dormant over this light volume part of the summer, so they are not in a rush to blast the stock off the lows.

Unless a new discovery comes out in the next week or 2, or somehow Madley 1 gets up to 500 bpd, expect more intraweek whips ending in stalemates.

I would not expect the move until we get to at least a week past Labor Day in which the smart money will probably start front running the 3rd quarter financials which will be due out in November. Treaty will probably get that one out in record time.

Let's say we use Reid's forecast of 982,000/month net of royalties and just apply it to August/September. That means they should show about 1.8 million in revenue which will be a big jump from the 13,000 in revenue from the last Q.

One last thing to bare in mind, the stock has only closed once below 4 cents since the April 2011 rally, and when that happened we had our pop to 7 cents. They are trying to get it down to that area again which should let more people in to load. This time when we go back to 7 cents, it should break through.

[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/8LKM4.png[/IMG]