OTHER FACTORS LIFTING OIL Global supply worries a

OTHER FACTORS LIFTING OIL

Global supply worries are also boosting prices.

Libya has cut exports by at least 1 million barrels a day due to production outages and labor conflicts at shipping ports. That is a more likely driver of the recent surge, according to analysts at JBC Energy in Vienna.

When Libya's oil production stopped completely during the revolution in 2011, oil rose by $20 a barrel over the span of two weeks.

While reports of ample global supplies were recently the norm, JBC Energy said current developments — such as low spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, stockpiles falling in the U.S., disappointing supply developments around the world and signs of an improving global economy — pointed to tighter markets.

IMPACT AT THE PUMP

In the U.S. the average price for gasoline is $3.55 a gallon, according to the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge report. Because of ample supplies, the price of gasoline has remained fairly steady during August even with the recent surge in oil. With the upcoming end of summer driving season, demand should ease, helping keep prices down.

But US Bank's Heckman cautions that high oil could have eventually have an impact.

"The longer you have this sustained high level ... ultimately that will transfer to gasoline prices."

IF THE US DOES STRIKE SYRIA?

Many analysts believe that the move in oil prices is most pronounced in the buildup to any attack. Once the U.S. has carried out the strike, traders will turn their focus to issues such as global oil supply.

In past Middle East conflicts, oil prices rose in anticipation of action, then fell quickly when the conflict actually started.

In the run-up to the Gulf War, oil prices more than doubled from under $20 in July of 1990 to $40 a barrel in October of that year. But on the day that the U.S. started bombing — January 17, 1991 —oil fell 33 percent, down to $21.

A similar pattern emerged as the Iraq War drew near in 2003. Prices rose from $31 a barrel at the beginning of the year to nearly $40 in March in the days before the invasion began. But by the end of March, they had fallen to $29 a barrel.