Maszap03, thank you for your thoughtful post, but let me say that many of your assumptions need revision. Perhaps, you are being overly conservative, or maybe you don't fully understand the industry or market Hollund is in. So let me try to shed some light on these issues so investors, and perhaps you, can better understand the situation. All is not lost and the prognosis and prescription is not nearly as gloomy as the picture just painted.
First, you use a $40 million dollar concession value. This figure was the most conservative estimate Hollund produced, and it did not include the entire concession. Instead, this estimate was only based on the largest cluster of trees that Hollund initially will go after. In addition, Hollund attempted to "manage" expectations by further reducing its estimate to an average value of $500 per tree recovered. This $500 figure is lower than any estimate I can find anywhere. In fact, the value typically given for Douglas Fir recovered from Lake Superior or Lake Michigan runs around $1,000 to $1,500 per tree, and these trees in Lake Bayano are considerably more valuable.
Second, you assume all Class C shares, as well as every other available share will be free trading. I personally talked to the beneficial shareholder with the largest slice of these shares, and he says he is not converting. In fact, he says he will buy anyone's shares who wishes to sell.
Third, your estimate of revenue and expenses seems more than a little out of whack and with no basis in reality. When one examines the traditional logging industry (an industry with many mandated expenses and regulations), one finds the profit margins are extremely high. So high, in fact, that most countries around the world report huge bribes paid to government officials for the rights to log timber, and still the logging companies make enormous profits. In contrast, Hollund is in an industry largely unregulated and without all the mandated environmental costs traditional logging companies must pay.
As for initial operating expenses, you are correct, Hollund has not detailed these costs. And I would not expect them to. Why would they want to give such information to their competitors? However, we do have some information available. The full cost of this first concession is listed in the LOI as $500,000. Of that, only $25,000 needed to be paid up front, and an additional $170,000 is to be paid at the signing of the definitive agreement (the contract). Remember, Hollund just obtained a $350,000 loan to purchase this concession. We can also see from the LOI that Hollund has committed itself to build an off-load ramp to remove logs from the lake --- this is a stipulation of the agreement. We do not know the what type of ramp will be built, but if one considers that a first class concrete ramp and winch system are likely, then $250,000 to $300,000 will likely be required.
As for day to day operating expenses, we have the cost of divers (not very expensive considering this is Panama), small boats to start, and some type of loader once logs are removed from the lake. All milling, transport, and distribution costs are covered (as far as we know) in the various partnership agreements.
Finally, Coast EcoTimber is a world class company praised for its products and method of operation. Coast is right next door to Hollund's concession, so it is a realistic comparison company. Coast only harvests one and sometimes two trees per day, and yet they have world-wide recognition and operate at a comfortable profit. But consider that Hollund anticipates harvesting two to five trees per day just with divers, and one to two hundred trees per day with a single TigerLynk working just one eight hour shift per day. And lets also consider the value of these trees. Hollund indicates there is a higher mixture of valuable trees in this concession than anyone originally realized. In fact, some individual tree species found in this concession sell for $10,000 to $15,000 per tree.
As one can see, these facts change the calculation considerably.
