>>Doesnt the fact that we have made it THIS FAR increase the probability that MTD will be reached without toxicity?
MTD is toxicity. Testing is done until dose limiting toxicity (DLT) as indicated by grade 3 adverse events. That dose limit is confirmed by retesting at previous level. The previous level then becomes the maximum tolerated dose, MTD. MTD is always reached without toxicity, and the next higher administrated dose always results in at least a few grade 3 adverse events.