Great post about ELTP from tangerine over on IHUB:
Post# of 2146
Posted On: 05/16/2013 5:52:06 PM
Great post about ELTP from tangerine over on IHUB:
That's exactly it Ryan. Let me put it in gambling terms. What are the odds and what is the payoff?
The best odds you will ever get in gambling which is what the stock market is, is slightly less then 50%. House always has the advantage.
So if you bet $100, you have about a 50% chance to get $200 back. This is just standard bets, blackjack etc...
What are the odds Elite gets an ART opioid product approved? I think the odds are extremely good. The science behind Elite's tech is solid and accepted by the FDA. See the FDA guidelines on abuse products. Also passed PH1 and PH2.
What is the return if Elite succeeds? Easily a 10-20 x return on your money with the opportunity for much higher. Casino would pay 2x but nothing if you lose.
Even though I think the number is very high, let's say 50% chance they succeed.
So you get a 50% chance at a 10-20x payout or greater.
Now what if they don't? Well you still get a profitable drug company with 20 generic drugs, ability to develop many more, NDAs which a couple may be ART products with partners and an asset in Novel likely to be worth more then Elite's current market cap. In the long run, you still win either way.
Its a no brainer to me.
The best odds you will ever get in gambling which is what the stock market is, is slightly less then 50%. House always has the advantage.
So if you bet $100, you have about a 50% chance to get $200 back. This is just standard bets, blackjack etc...
What are the odds Elite gets an ART opioid product approved? I think the odds are extremely good. The science behind Elite's tech is solid and accepted by the FDA. See the FDA guidelines on abuse products. Also passed PH1 and PH2.
What is the return if Elite succeeds? Easily a 10-20 x return on your money with the opportunity for much higher. Casino would pay 2x but nothing if you lose.
Even though I think the number is very high, let's say 50% chance they succeed.
So you get a 50% chance at a 10-20x payout or greater.
Now what if they don't? Well you still get a profitable drug company with 20 generic drugs, ability to develop many more, NDAs which a couple may be ART products with partners and an asset in Novel likely to be worth more then Elite's current market cap. In the long run, you still win either way.
Its a no brainer to me.
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