Nine red days in chips: buying chance or the start of something bigger?
SMH, my largest position, just went through the longest chip losing streak since 2008. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5% last week while the Dow still gained 0.7%, so this was a rotation out of crowded AI names, not a broad market collapse.
Why it happened: worries about debt-funded AI data centers, China's CXMT closing in on memory design, and sticky inflation with the 10-year around 5.1%. The odd part is that ASML and TSMC both reported records in that same week.
This week decides a lot for SMH holders. Wednesday brings hyperscaler capex guidance plus Tesla and the first US equipment report since ASML. Capex is the number that matters: it flows straight down to foundries, equipment makers and HBM memory. Thursday adds Western Digital as a read on storage demand, and Friday closes with PMIs and inflation expectations. Brent near $110 is the main risk.
My take: the streak shows how crowded the trade became, not that AI demand faded. I stay invested in semis and add slowly to quality names on weakness.
Relief rally this week or a longer streak? Curious what you think.
My full weekly outlook with bull, base and bear scenarios is on my eToro profile: https://med.etoro.com/aw.aspx?A=129366&Ta...af_page_v3
SMH, my largest position, just went through the longest chip losing streak since 2008. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5% last week while the Dow still gained 0.7%, so this was a rotation out of crowded AI names, not a broad market collapse.
Why it happened: worries about debt-funded AI data centers, China's CXMT closing in on memory design, and sticky inflation with the 10-year around 5.1%. The odd part is that ASML and TSMC both reported records in that same week.
This week decides a lot for SMH holders. Wednesday brings hyperscaler capex guidance plus Tesla and the first US equipment report since ASML. Capex is the number that matters: it flows straight down to foundries, equipment makers and HBM memory. Thursday adds Western Digital as a read on storage demand, and Friday closes with PMIs and inflation expectations. Brent near $110 is the main risk.
My take: the streak shows how crowded the trade became, not that AI demand faded. I stay invested in semis and add slowly to quality names on weakness.
Relief rally this week or a longer streak? Curious what you think.
My full weekly outlook with bull, base and bear scenarios is on my eToro profile: https://med.etoro.com/aw.aspx?A=129366&Ta...af_page_v3
