Economic data at a glance (October 2)
US Dollar weekly
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24USD&...4982523747
US Dollar surged over the past few weeks to a 17-month high. This surge is primarily fueled by a global bond market selloff, a highly hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and growing financial panic in European markets.
US 20-year Treasury Bond price should meet support at 73 and rally back up to 93
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&p=w...2963243620
Hawkish Fed Policy & Near-Decade High Yields
• Rate Hike Expectations: The Federal Reserve unanimously increased rates by 25 basis points in September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm focus on combating persistent 3.4% inflation has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Yield Advantage: A severe global bond selloff pushed 10-year US Treasury yields past 5.3%, hitting multi-decade highs. This creates an attractive, high-yielding safe haven for foreign capital, directly strengthening the greenback against non-yielding assets.
European Debt Anxieties
• Fiscal Instability: Growing fears surrounding high French national debt and broader political turmoil have triggered panic in the European markets.
• Widening Spreads: French 10-year government bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. The expanding yield gap between France and safe-haven Germany has caused investors to aggressively dump the Euro, funneling capital into the US dollar.
Geopolitical Turmoil & Safe Haven Status
• The Energy Shock: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its eighth month, shows no signs of a ceasefire. With Brent crude oil stubbornly stuck above $100 a barrel, global inflation concerns have intensified.
• Energy Exporter Safety: Rising oil costs pressure major energy-importing economies. Investors are heavily scaling back exposure to the Euro and Japanese Yen, routing funds to the US as a secure energy and economic counterweight.
While the dollar has enjoyed a searing 3% rally since early September, it pulled back slightly midday following a weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls report (showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs). This cooling jobs data has prompted some traders to pare back bets on an immediate follow-up rate hike at the late-October Fed meeting, causing minor intraday profit-taking on the greenback. However, the broader structural advantages of the US currency remain firmly underpinned by macro conditions.
The US economy added only 29K jobs in September
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States is weakening, expanded only 2.20 percent in the second quarter of 2026
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
Further hike in interest rate by the Fed risk tanking the economy into a recession amid weak monthly job creation and weakening economic growth.
Gold price is pulling back to the Neckline on strength of the US Dollar, it should meet support at $4000.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24GOLD&...8609492691
Mining stocks move on their own merit depending on the ongoing operation of the company.
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US Dollar weekly
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24USD&...4982523747
US Dollar surged over the past few weeks to a 17-month high. This surge is primarily fueled by a global bond market selloff, a highly hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and growing financial panic in European markets.
US 20-year Treasury Bond price should meet support at 73 and rally back up to 93
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&p=w...2963243620
Hawkish Fed Policy & Near-Decade High Yields
• Rate Hike Expectations: The Federal Reserve unanimously increased rates by 25 basis points in September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm focus on combating persistent 3.4% inflation has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Yield Advantage: A severe global bond selloff pushed 10-year US Treasury yields past 5.3%, hitting multi-decade highs. This creates an attractive, high-yielding safe haven for foreign capital, directly strengthening the greenback against non-yielding assets.
European Debt Anxieties
• Fiscal Instability: Growing fears surrounding high French national debt and broader political turmoil have triggered panic in the European markets.
• Widening Spreads: French 10-year government bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. The expanding yield gap between France and safe-haven Germany has caused investors to aggressively dump the Euro, funneling capital into the US dollar.
Geopolitical Turmoil & Safe Haven Status
• The Energy Shock: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its eighth month, shows no signs of a ceasefire. With Brent crude oil stubbornly stuck above $100 a barrel, global inflation concerns have intensified.
• Energy Exporter Safety: Rising oil costs pressure major energy-importing economies. Investors are heavily scaling back exposure to the Euro and Japanese Yen, routing funds to the US as a secure energy and economic counterweight.
While the dollar has enjoyed a searing 3% rally since early September, it pulled back slightly midday following a weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls report (showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs). This cooling jobs data has prompted some traders to pare back bets on an immediate follow-up rate hike at the late-October Fed meeting, causing minor intraday profit-taking on the greenback. However, the broader structural advantages of the US currency remain firmly underpinned by macro conditions.
The US economy added only 29K jobs in September
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States is weakening, expanded only 2.20 percent in the second quarter of 2026
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
Further hike in interest rate by the Fed risk tanking the economy into a recession amid weak monthly job creation and weakening economic growth.
Gold price is pulling back to the Neckline on strength of the US Dollar, it should meet support at $4000.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24GOLD&...8609492691
Mining stocks move on their own merit depending on the ongoing operation of the company.
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.
.
