BP isn't looking to steal the company for cheap. they are stupidly conservative. they will wait on ICI data. not PD-L1 data, ICI data. they will wait until a prospective trial shows 1) ORR that they like and 2) durability. both are clearly about 99% certain for tnbc. but they'll wait. due to then insane retrospective data which is now at 6 years, i guess a very unusual exception regarding durability may be in order. but they aren't going to flinch until p2 prospective data confirms ORR with the leron ICI combo, in whatever indication.
i'm not even sure they'll consider a move based on EAP data when it becomes available for enough patients, however many that may be. the thing is, it seems crazy to all of us, me included, that no action was taken, not even a partnership to fund upcoming tnbc trials, after the stunning discovery from a year ago. that is when i bought back in. i thought the share price was going to move very substantially very soon.
i think that the current mss trial, if it shows 30% ORR and 8 month mPFS, is good enough for a partner to step in. but ultimately i think merck and BMS are the suitors waiting in the wings and that they have the ability to keep everything else at bay until they are ready to go. or who knows maybe one of them steps in there to start a relationship while waiting on ICI data. lol, but the data would have to prove out first. the data isn;t there yet, and its certain to get there. we'll know by end january, maybe get some hints prior.
when the time comes, assuming it will come because even the tnbc ICI combo data alone is worth a deal, then i think that merck and bms will be the only serious bidders. i think that because they have SO much to lose currently and SO much to gain, being the PD-L1 / PD-1 leaders, that other ICI players know that merck and bms will be able to justify paying more than anyone else. they have the approvals already in so many indications, patented. their combo development could be immensely condensed vs what would be required of others. less costly, less time consuming, more revenue faster and for longer vs generics, across more indications that all the others combined.
cytodyn board also has a fiduciary duty to shareholders not to under sell the company. some sort of $1 per share deal would bring lawsuits. nobody wants that. BP knows that ultimately the offer needs to reflect a reasonable valuation to some extent, based on existing data at the time.
i'm not even sure they'll consider a move based on EAP data when it becomes available for enough patients, however many that may be. the thing is, it seems crazy to all of us, me included, that no action was taken, not even a partnership to fund upcoming tnbc trials, after the stunning discovery from a year ago. that is when i bought back in. i thought the share price was going to move very substantially very soon.
i think that the current mss trial, if it shows 30% ORR and 8 month mPFS, is good enough for a partner to step in. but ultimately i think merck and BMS are the suitors waiting in the wings and that they have the ability to keep everything else at bay until they are ready to go. or who knows maybe one of them steps in there to start a relationship while waiting on ICI data. lol, but the data would have to prove out first. the data isn;t there yet, and its certain to get there. we'll know by end january, maybe get some hints prior.
when the time comes, assuming it will come because even the tnbc ICI combo data alone is worth a deal, then i think that merck and bms will be the only serious bidders. i think that because they have SO much to lose currently and SO much to gain, being the PD-L1 / PD-1 leaders, that other ICI players know that merck and bms will be able to justify paying more than anyone else. they have the approvals already in so many indications, patented. their combo development could be immensely condensed vs what would be required of others. less costly, less time consuming, more revenue faster and for longer vs generics, across more indications that all the others combined.
cytodyn board also has a fiduciary duty to shareholders not to under sell the company. some sort of $1 per share deal would bring lawsuits. nobody wants that. BP knows that ultimately the offer needs to reflect a reasonable valuation to some extent, based on existing data at the time.
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