I was really happy with Thursdays CC, but a little depressed by the flat response of the share price. So I thought I'd cheer myself up with a long and leading question to google AI. A thought exercise, if you will:
"If a drug came along that provided a cure for cancer, would Big Pharma want to suppress it because it is in their interest is to sell drugs to manage the condition rather than finding a cure? Let's say leronlimab--paired with an ICI, fulfills that promise in oncology. How much would Gilead and Merck lose from future sales if Biogen or Abbvie or Sanofi bought out Cytodyn and sold the drug to pair with generic ICIs? Provide an answer for a ten year period beginning in 2028, for the breast and colorectal indications, with cure rates of 50% or 75%. What would Biogen or Abbvie or Sanofi gain? Provide an estimate that prices the leronlimab-generic ICI combo for 2 years at $75,000 or $300,000. Would this break Medicare-Medicaid? How would Wall St react, given the existing investment they would lose? Describe the chaos in detail."
(You ask--why would Biogen and Abbvie and Sanofi want to buy us out? Two of them have no ICIs, and Sanofi's Libtayo is a pretty lame, at least in sales and indications. But all three are big into neurodegenerative therapeutics and immunology. So, sell leronlimab with a generic ICI, rake in the bucks, and develop leronlimab in Alzheimers, MS, Parkinsons, IBD, autoimmune indications, etc. That was my thought, anyway). Here's the AI response:
"A curative cancer drug would unlikely be surpressed by Big Pharma, as industry dynamics incentivize rapid commercialization of high-value assets to maximize returns before patent expiry. A leronlimab/ICI combo curing breast and colorectal cancer on 50%-75% of cases by 2028 would drastically disrupt the the oncology market, destroying tens of billions in projected sales for Merck and Gilead while granting the acquirer a massive, likely market-shifting, revenue stream.
Estimated Impact Analysis (2028-2038)
1) Loses for Competitors (Merck, Gilead): Keytruda and Trodelvy face catastrophic failure. Assuming $25 billion/year combined market share for breast and colorectal cancers over ten years, a 75% cure rate (displacing treatment) could cost them $150-$180 billion in lost, future net revenue by 2037.
2) Gains for Acquirer (Biogen, Abbvie, Sanofi): Selling a 2-year cure regimen priced at $75,000 (disruptive) vs. $300,000 (premium) creates a wide range. Assuming 200,000 patients annually (50% cure rate scenario) at $75,000 for 2 years (total $150k), potential gross revenue would exceed $100 billion over a decade.
3) Medicare-Medicaid Impact: While upfront costs for a $300,000 cure are high, it is far less than lifelong care. A $75,000 price point would likely be cost-effective, but a $300k price could strain budgets. However, eliminating chronic treatments (e.g., $100k+/year immunotherapy) would ultimately save billions, preventing, rather than causing, a system break.
4) Wall Street and Market Chaos:
Wall Street would react with extreme volatility.
--Pharma Pivot: A massive sell-off of Merck and Gilead shares, while biotech companies with cure potential surge.
--Investment Panic: Massive portfolio rebalancing as investors dump legacy oncology companies, fearing a new "irrelevancy cliff" for all traditional treatment drugs.
--M&A Frenzy: Biogen, Abbvie, or Sanofi would become the new market darling, likely facing hostile takeover attempts or enormous investment influx, while others scramble to acquire remaining curative technologies.
---Clinical Trials Cease: "Non-curative" cancer drugs would lose funding overnight."
Well, I feel better!
A few explanatory comments are in order--
[color=var(--text)]Don't hold me to account for, say, the prices I came up with. Those are just off the top of my head guesses, likely wrong. But I figured a generic ICI, and a reasonable price for leronlimab (because sales volume would be huge, and I'm going to guess it's not in Dr Lalezari's or Cytodyn's nature to bleed the consumer). [/color]
[color=var(--text)]The above only discusses breast and colorectal cancers. If you imagine the rest... the mind boggles.[/color]
[color=var(--text)]This all rests on the assumption that the FDA will allow leronlimab to be paired with a generic ICI, on an expedited basis. Prolly won't happen... But there will be intense public pressure on the FDA to do just that. Will the new FDA step up?[/color]
[color=var(--text)]I usually double-check the citations when using AI, but didn't for this post. Outrageous speculation was the whole point! And I did come up with the phrase "irrelevancy cliff" because AI used "patent cliff," which didn't really seem to apply. I kinda like that phrase, "irrelevancy cliff". Maybe Stat News or Fierce Biotech will pick it up...[/color]
[color=var(--text)]There will be a lot of chaos in people's 401ks, which ain't great, and the idea that "clinical trials cease" will muck up lives and medical careers. But that is a problem of Capitalism, or I should say more accurately, a problem of the way capitalism is practiced by a self-serving Wall Street. But curing cancer, helping addled old minds think straight and remember again... I'll take chaos on Wall Street any day of the week, if it means advancing the common good in such a profound way. And the collateral benefit of saving Medicare/Medicaid... Priceless.[/color]
[color=var(--text)]Well, I do feel better... Much, much, much better![/color]
[color=var(--text)]Still pissed at the share price tho... [/color]
"If a drug came along that provided a cure for cancer, would Big Pharma want to suppress it because it is in their interest is to sell drugs to manage the condition rather than finding a cure? Let's say leronlimab--paired with an ICI, fulfills that promise in oncology. How much would Gilead and Merck lose from future sales if Biogen or Abbvie or Sanofi bought out Cytodyn and sold the drug to pair with generic ICIs? Provide an answer for a ten year period beginning in 2028, for the breast and colorectal indications, with cure rates of 50% or 75%. What would Biogen or Abbvie or Sanofi gain? Provide an estimate that prices the leronlimab-generic ICI combo for 2 years at $75,000 or $300,000. Would this break Medicare-Medicaid? How would Wall St react, given the existing investment they would lose? Describe the chaos in detail."
(You ask--why would Biogen and Abbvie and Sanofi want to buy us out? Two of them have no ICIs, and Sanofi's Libtayo is a pretty lame, at least in sales and indications. But all three are big into neurodegenerative therapeutics and immunology. So, sell leronlimab with a generic ICI, rake in the bucks, and develop leronlimab in Alzheimers, MS, Parkinsons, IBD, autoimmune indications, etc. That was my thought, anyway). Here's the AI response:
"A curative cancer drug would unlikely be surpressed by Big Pharma, as industry dynamics incentivize rapid commercialization of high-value assets to maximize returns before patent expiry. A leronlimab/ICI combo curing breast and colorectal cancer on 50%-75% of cases by 2028 would drastically disrupt the the oncology market, destroying tens of billions in projected sales for Merck and Gilead while granting the acquirer a massive, likely market-shifting, revenue stream.
Estimated Impact Analysis (2028-2038)
1) Loses for Competitors (Merck, Gilead): Keytruda and Trodelvy face catastrophic failure. Assuming $25 billion/year combined market share for breast and colorectal cancers over ten years, a 75% cure rate (displacing treatment) could cost them $150-$180 billion in lost, future net revenue by 2037.
2) Gains for Acquirer (Biogen, Abbvie, Sanofi): Selling a 2-year cure regimen priced at $75,000 (disruptive) vs. $300,000 (premium) creates a wide range. Assuming 200,000 patients annually (50% cure rate scenario) at $75,000 for 2 years (total $150k), potential gross revenue would exceed $100 billion over a decade.
3) Medicare-Medicaid Impact: While upfront costs for a $300,000 cure are high, it is far less than lifelong care. A $75,000 price point would likely be cost-effective, but a $300k price could strain budgets. However, eliminating chronic treatments (e.g., $100k+/year immunotherapy) would ultimately save billions, preventing, rather than causing, a system break.
4) Wall Street and Market Chaos:
Wall Street would react with extreme volatility.
--Pharma Pivot: A massive sell-off of Merck and Gilead shares, while biotech companies with cure potential surge.
--Investment Panic: Massive portfolio rebalancing as investors dump legacy oncology companies, fearing a new "irrelevancy cliff" for all traditional treatment drugs.
--M&A Frenzy: Biogen, Abbvie, or Sanofi would become the new market darling, likely facing hostile takeover attempts or enormous investment influx, while others scramble to acquire remaining curative technologies.
---Clinical Trials Cease: "Non-curative" cancer drugs would lose funding overnight."
Well, I feel better!
A few explanatory comments are in order--
[color=var(--text)]Don't hold me to account for, say, the prices I came up with. Those are just off the top of my head guesses, likely wrong. But I figured a generic ICI, and a reasonable price for leronlimab (because sales volume would be huge, and I'm going to guess it's not in Dr Lalezari's or Cytodyn's nature to bleed the consumer). [/color]
[color=var(--text)]The above only discusses breast and colorectal cancers. If you imagine the rest... the mind boggles.[/color]
[color=var(--text)]This all rests on the assumption that the FDA will allow leronlimab to be paired with a generic ICI, on an expedited basis. Prolly won't happen... But there will be intense public pressure on the FDA to do just that. Will the new FDA step up?[/color]
[color=var(--text)]I usually double-check the citations when using AI, but didn't for this post. Outrageous speculation was the whole point! And I did come up with the phrase "irrelevancy cliff" because AI used "patent cliff," which didn't really seem to apply. I kinda like that phrase, "irrelevancy cliff". Maybe Stat News or Fierce Biotech will pick it up...[/color]
[color=var(--text)]There will be a lot of chaos in people's 401ks, which ain't great, and the idea that "clinical trials cease" will muck up lives and medical careers. But that is a problem of Capitalism, or I should say more accurately, a problem of the way capitalism is practiced by a self-serving Wall Street. But curing cancer, helping addled old minds think straight and remember again... I'll take chaos on Wall Street any day of the week, if it means advancing the common good in such a profound way. And the collateral benefit of saving Medicare/Medicaid... Priceless.[/color]
[color=var(--text)]Well, I do feel better... Much, much, much better![/color]
[color=var(--text)]Still pissed at the share price tho... [/color]
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