BIEL: 90% Probability To Appreciate! Applying Pro
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Posted On: 11/29/2025 12:45:45 AM
BIEL: 90% Probability To Appreciate!
Applying Probalistic Methods Analysis (developed by Jim Simons, PhD Mathematics Berkeley, who used it to achieve an average 72% annual return running the Medallion Fund over 20 years, becoming a multi-billionaire in the process) to BIEL - Model-Derived Probability:
One specific model suggests a 90% probability range of $0.0005 to $0.0012 in 3 months.
This implies a high expectation of appreciation: Even the bottom end of the 90% confidence interval ($0.0005) is significantly above the current price ($0.0003).
Separately, Stockscan uses quantitative statistical and probability-based techniques and predicts BIEL will appreciate 555%:
https://stockscan.io/stocks/BIEL/forecast
Finally, BIEL achieved its only profitable quarter in Q3 2021, posting $22,381 in net income on $414,700 in revenue, which included over $100,000 in COVID relief funds. This milestone underscores how close the company is to sustained profitability, thanks to its ultra-low operating costs and lean business model.
Break-Even Threshold
Based on historical performance, $1.5 million in annual revenue—or roughly $400,000 per quarter—appears sufficient to reach consistent profitability.
This revenue target is well within reach given BIEL’s expanding product lines (e.g., ActiPatch, RecoveryRx and veterinary applications) and growing distribution partnerships.
BIEL’s Fastest Path to Success
1. Hit $400K in quarterly revenue This milestone unlocks profitability and cash flow positivity. Even the expectation of hitting it can drive the PPS to copper levels.
2. Reach $1.5M in annual revenue This confirms sustainable growth and strengthens investor confidence. Again, even strong guidance toward this number can move the needle significantly.
3. Leverage the new US distributor: If investors value the OTC partnership at just $300K, it pushes PPS out of the trips. A $1M valuation and the PPS hits copper.
Share Price Projection
Once profitability is achieved, the price per share (PPS) is projected to hit $0.01.
For every additional $2.5 million in annual revenue, PPS could increase by $0.01 (P/E = 100).
Valuation Scenarios (Using Conventional Market Multiples for High Growth Stocks):
.001+ PPS: Move out of the trips triggered by technical indicators (Golden Cross =.0003 and Blue-Sky Breakout = .0006).
.003 PPS: 3,000% gain (better than Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc., over past 10 years) when US distributor announcement goes viral.
.01 PPS: $1.5 million in annual revenue—or roughly $400,000 per quarter—appears sufficient to reach consistent profitability.
.02 PPS: 20,000% gain with $5M profit (P/E = 100).
.04 PPS: 40,000% gain with $10M profit (P/E = 100).
.10 PPS: $25M profit (P/E = 100).
.20 PPS: Same $25M profit, but P/E = 200.
$1 PPS: Same $25M profit, but P/E = 1000.
$1 PPS: After debt payoff and stock buyback.
Tax Advantage
BIEL holds a $40 million tax-loss carryforward, meaning the first $40 million in profits will be tax-free.This accelerates the path to net profitability and enhances shareholder value by preserving cash flow during early growth phases.
Applying Probalistic Methods Analysis (developed by Jim Simons, PhD Mathematics Berkeley, who used it to achieve an average 72% annual return running the Medallion Fund over 20 years, becoming a multi-billionaire in the process) to BIEL - Model-Derived Probability:
One specific model suggests a 90% probability range of $0.0005 to $0.0012 in 3 months.
This implies a high expectation of appreciation: Even the bottom end of the 90% confidence interval ($0.0005) is significantly above the current price ($0.0003).
Separately, Stockscan uses quantitative statistical and probability-based techniques and predicts BIEL will appreciate 555%:
https://stockscan.io/stocks/BIEL/forecast
Finally, BIEL achieved its only profitable quarter in Q3 2021, posting $22,381 in net income on $414,700 in revenue, which included over $100,000 in COVID relief funds. This milestone underscores how close the company is to sustained profitability, thanks to its ultra-low operating costs and lean business model.
Break-Even Threshold
Based on historical performance, $1.5 million in annual revenue—or roughly $400,000 per quarter—appears sufficient to reach consistent profitability.
This revenue target is well within reach given BIEL’s expanding product lines (e.g., ActiPatch, RecoveryRx and veterinary applications) and growing distribution partnerships.
BIEL’s Fastest Path to Success
1. Hit $400K in quarterly revenue This milestone unlocks profitability and cash flow positivity. Even the expectation of hitting it can drive the PPS to copper levels.
2. Reach $1.5M in annual revenue This confirms sustainable growth and strengthens investor confidence. Again, even strong guidance toward this number can move the needle significantly.
3. Leverage the new US distributor: If investors value the OTC partnership at just $300K, it pushes PPS out of the trips. A $1M valuation and the PPS hits copper.
Share Price Projection
Once profitability is achieved, the price per share (PPS) is projected to hit $0.01.
For every additional $2.5 million in annual revenue, PPS could increase by $0.01 (P/E = 100).
Valuation Scenarios (Using Conventional Market Multiples for High Growth Stocks):
.001+ PPS: Move out of the trips triggered by technical indicators (Golden Cross =.0003 and Blue-Sky Breakout = .0006).
.003 PPS: 3,000% gain (better than Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc., over past 10 years) when US distributor announcement goes viral.
.01 PPS: $1.5 million in annual revenue—or roughly $400,000 per quarter—appears sufficient to reach consistent profitability.
.02 PPS: 20,000% gain with $5M profit (P/E = 100).
.04 PPS: 40,000% gain with $10M profit (P/E = 100).
.10 PPS: $25M profit (P/E = 100).
.20 PPS: Same $25M profit, but P/E = 200.
$1 PPS: Same $25M profit, but P/E = 1000.
$1 PPS: After debt payoff and stock buyback.
Tax Advantage
BIEL holds a $40 million tax-loss carryforward, meaning the first $40 million in profits will be tax-free.This accelerates the path to net profitability and enhances shareholder value by preserving cash flow during early growth phases.
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