Yeah, I guess that would be my point as well; while they're definitely a factor here, it makes no sense to me that those Paulson folks would want to nail the bid every time the SP goes up near some fixed price, presently it's around 35 cents.. it's like the judge said, don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining.
And it must be acknowledged that the day traders are in the mix as well (I know one who is) I think they are attracted by the volatility rather than the cause of it...chicken vs egg thing there, though.