It’s all about market cap. CytoDyn’s float is
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Posted On: 05/21/2025 9:08:48 AM
Re: StinkyPennies #153347
It’s all about market cap. CytoDyn’s float is a lot bigger, and I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, just keeping expectations grounded.
At a current market cap of $5.8 billion, CytoDyn’s share price would be around $4.72, based on the 1.23 billion shares outstanding.
Compare that to RGC at $473 per share with a $6 billion market cap. That $473 seems like a floor for them, tied to the deal structure as far as I can tell. I think RGC might creep up a bit since $6 billion is the deal baseline, and their P/E looks low for a company with a licensing deal.
RGC’s deal was hefty, and it’s not totally out of reach for CytoDyn. Just a guess, but if we got a deal like that, I think we’d blow past $4 on the run up and maybe set a higher floor, thanks to our shareholder base and the known potential. We could see double digits for a short time, $10 or more wouldn’t shock me.
But there’s absolutely no way we hit $78 per share unless they drop some crazy PR, like curing 10 people of HIV with LATCH, and hype goes wild or POTUS/Gates says here’s the cure!
With a deal like this, the floor could become $4–$6, and most of should be very happy. That would hint at $10–$20 billion down the road, which is proving out what we always believed!
I’d probably sell a little on the way up, but we’d be way less risky with even just a $100 million plus licensing deal, which would probably cause a lot of de-risking too soon for many. Me personally I am a lot more risk adverse than I use to be.
It’s tough to say for sure, but sometimes companies explode, and the P/E could get inflated, even for us who’ve been here forever we might scream why did I sell at 8! Our P/E might push CytoDyn to $15 billion or more after a deal, wouldn’t shock me.
$70 Billon might make sense to some but it doesn’t at all to me unless there was some very unusual news within the next year or a meme stock event.
At a current market cap of $5.8 billion, CytoDyn’s share price would be around $4.72, based on the 1.23 billion shares outstanding.
Compare that to RGC at $473 per share with a $6 billion market cap. That $473 seems like a floor for them, tied to the deal structure as far as I can tell. I think RGC might creep up a bit since $6 billion is the deal baseline, and their P/E looks low for a company with a licensing deal.
RGC’s deal was hefty, and it’s not totally out of reach for CytoDyn. Just a guess, but if we got a deal like that, I think we’d blow past $4 on the run up and maybe set a higher floor, thanks to our shareholder base and the known potential. We could see double digits for a short time, $10 or more wouldn’t shock me.
But there’s absolutely no way we hit $78 per share unless they drop some crazy PR, like curing 10 people of HIV with LATCH, and hype goes wild or POTUS/Gates says here’s the cure!
With a deal like this, the floor could become $4–$6, and most of should be very happy. That would hint at $10–$20 billion down the road, which is proving out what we always believed!
I’d probably sell a little on the way up, but we’d be way less risky with even just a $100 million plus licensing deal, which would probably cause a lot of de-risking too soon for many. Me personally I am a lot more risk adverse than I use to be.
It’s tough to say for sure, but sometimes companies explode, and the P/E could get inflated, even for us who’ve been here forever we might scream why did I sell at 8! Our P/E might push CytoDyn to $15 billion or more after a deal, wouldn’t shock me.
$70 Billon might make sense to some but it doesn’t at all to me unless there was some very unusual news within the next year or a meme stock event.
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