I'm not surprised by the MASH news either. In fact I was preparing to post some thoughts about it in the next few days. Here's the short version:
Three-quarters of MASH patients are overweight or obese. These patients will want to lose weight, and their doctors will also want something that reduces weight. Next-generation GLP-1s that pair GIPs and/or glucagon--which has a direct effect on liver fat--seems to be the way to go. Perhaps THR-Bs or FGF21 drugs will be combined with GLP-1s as well. And there are several of these dual or triple agonists in development, including from heavyweights LLY and NOVO.
But don't count out Altimmune (ALT). While a small firm, they have a drug called pemvidutide that is a GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist that I think looks like the next big thing in MASH. Their Phase I results show substantial reductions in liver fat, along with lower triglycerides and LDL cholesterol, modest reductions in bp, preferential loss of visceral fat and 10%-15% reduction in weight. Oh, and the weight loss spares muscle. They have a Phase IIb data readout scheduled for Q2 and they are expecting at least one level of fibrosis resolution as well. At roughly $6/share, with a float of 77 million... keep an eye on it. They had an investors presentation last week, and the slides are archived on the website if you want to see the data. And Dr Mazen Nourredin, who was involved in Cytodyn's MASH trial, is now the lead investigator for ALT's Phase IIb trial.
The tell, for me, was rereading the Feb 6th press release on the SMC studies. Fibrosis was mentioned 6 times, MASH only once. And that one mention was in reference to the STAM model that SMC uses in their liver studies! Neither Palmer or Lalezari uttered the word in their comments. So taking note of that, as well as the hardcore competition in the MASH space... I got the feeling the MASH indication might be a slog. And now we find out LL doesn't do much for liver fat after all.
Sure, some company might want to pair something with LL to deal with liver fibrosis... But at this stage of the game they are pretty far behind in the MASH "race". At some point a trial in more advanced cases of liver fibrosis would be appropriate. But now it looks like Cytodyn has other fish to fry... Bigger fish!
Like, we are an Oncology Company now.
--Sherlock--
Three-quarters of MASH patients are overweight or obese. These patients will want to lose weight, and their doctors will also want something that reduces weight. Next-generation GLP-1s that pair GIPs and/or glucagon--which has a direct effect on liver fat--seems to be the way to go. Perhaps THR-Bs or FGF21 drugs will be combined with GLP-1s as well. And there are several of these dual or triple agonists in development, including from heavyweights LLY and NOVO.
But don't count out Altimmune (ALT). While a small firm, they have a drug called pemvidutide that is a GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist that I think looks like the next big thing in MASH. Their Phase I results show substantial reductions in liver fat, along with lower triglycerides and LDL cholesterol, modest reductions in bp, preferential loss of visceral fat and 10%-15% reduction in weight. Oh, and the weight loss spares muscle. They have a Phase IIb data readout scheduled for Q2 and they are expecting at least one level of fibrosis resolution as well. At roughly $6/share, with a float of 77 million... keep an eye on it. They had an investors presentation last week, and the slides are archived on the website if you want to see the data. And Dr Mazen Nourredin, who was involved in Cytodyn's MASH trial, is now the lead investigator for ALT's Phase IIb trial.
The tell, for me, was rereading the Feb 6th press release on the SMC studies. Fibrosis was mentioned 6 times, MASH only once. And that one mention was in reference to the STAM model that SMC uses in their liver studies! Neither Palmer or Lalezari uttered the word in their comments. So taking note of that, as well as the hardcore competition in the MASH space... I got the feeling the MASH indication might be a slog. And now we find out LL doesn't do much for liver fat after all.
Sure, some company might want to pair something with LL to deal with liver fibrosis... But at this stage of the game they are pretty far behind in the MASH "race". At some point a trial in more advanced cases of liver fibrosis would be appropriate. But now it looks like Cytodyn has other fish to fry... Bigger fish!
Like, we are an Oncology Company now.
--Sherlock--
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