Great piece from Reddit
My Valuation of CYDY
Dear Longs,
My apologies for posting again; but my time is limited in the next few weeks and I wanted to get this off my chest. If there is a buyout, how will CYDY be evaluated?
As I mentioned in the past, I have not been in the board room while these negotiations took place. However, I supplied market information to help our side in the talks. I was fortunate enough to get some of the details after some of the meetings, or I had to wait to hear the details after the official announcement. Nonetheless, I received great insights on how some of the numbers were bantered about.
Priorities on the valuation:, no particular order!
Market Potential in the indications that are most probable for the drug to receive FDA approval in the next 5 years.
potential market penetration into each indication. Or Market share in years 1 thru 5
How competitive that indication is currently and what is known to be upcoming competition in those various indications.
What phase of development the drug is currently in. Pre-clinical, Phase 1, Phase 2 or 3
How efficacious it is to date in those early trials, what spend will it take to go to the next phases, including the pivotal phase 3 trials.
How much does it cost to take it to market?
Current Debt
Comparable buyouts. Not stock price but overall payouts, including debt. Stock price is not talked about. Every company has different outstanding share counts. What matters is the billions that will be exchanged for the assets.
Current revenue (None for CYDY)
Current FDA approvals (None for CYDY, yet)
How much does the buying company discount for no revenue, and no FDA approval. They run all of these market numbers, penetration, competition and other factors; then the buying company suddenly says we will offer 75% less because we have to finish the potential. It is a discount to the valuation because it won't be realized for 1 - 5 years, depending.
There is a ton of other factors that influence the valuation and I will not be able to cover even 10% of all of those. But, I wanted to give you all a taste of what will go down when it starts to get exciting during the negotiations.
Personally, I want CYDY to maximize our valuation as much as possible but balance that out with the risks that exist. The days of three fingers are over unless we go with a partner for so many years and that is without encountering any risks to the markets we participate in.
I'll list three risks that I had given to response to another post sometime ago:
There are also risks down the road, nothing is ever guaranteed. Many times I have seen other companies that should have sold earlier hold out for something better and several things happened:
the market conditions changed - In the Pharma space Medicare sets the standard on reimbursement and other private insurance use that as a standard for their own reimbursement policies. But, as the Baby Boomer generation continues to move almost completely into the 65 years and older category it is draining the heck out of the Medicare Funds. In 2025 Medicare will officially be operating in a deficit. It is very possible that Medicare and our wonderful Congressional policy leaders will put huge restrictions on drug pricing and pricing increasing to help keep Medicare solvent. The pharmaceutical world and their associated stock prices will be negatively affected and so will the value of an up and coming pharma company like CYDY. This is a HIGH RISK area and I hope it does not kick in, but you never know.
Today, there is high hope for Long Acting LL. No matter what, I hope that it works like we all hope it will. But, I can not tell you how many times I have seen the BIG HOPE project that will take our company over the top FAIL. BackwardsK in a response to another post said: In the biotech world there is a OLD saying; " Monkeys Lie and Mice exaggerate". Every biotech has had the experience of animal studies going well, and showing tremendous promise. Then when the human phases start it does not make it across the finish line. Should've sold when it was considered promising.
Every Pharma company is using AI to accelerate development. As freaking good as LL is, there might be a better formula out there eventually. Some AI just might develop a better drug for all of the indications we are going after.
All I am saying with just three above examples (there are more) is you take a risk waiting for a better offer and rolling the dice that everything in the future is going to be smooth sailing. If we do not get what I think is a fair offer, I am all for trying to increase the value of CYDY, by partnering and hitting milestones that carry more value. In the end, I am aware of some of the risks ahead, but its the risks you don't see coming are the ones that really hurt the most.
Let's TAKE A LOOK AT CYDY's POTENTIAL VALUE:
I think that CYDY Leadership and the BoD of CytoDyn can and should be confident that Leronlimab has the potential to be bigger than Humira and Keytruda combined. But, it would take at least 12 - 15+ years to achieve as many indications as those two drugs have. Both of those drugs are roughly $20 billion each annually. And both drugs are under attack. They are losing patent protection and biosimilars are biting at their ankles and will soon be biting off their legs. I can almost guarantee that the buying BP company is not going to value anything past five years.
Great that CYDY leadership will hold out for a fair offer but what is a fair offer when one side is high and the other is low? That is when they start to look at comparables:
Information on Merck's acquisition activities:
Merck was in discussions with a company called Seagen. They actually were in discussions to buy Seagen out for $40 Billion dollars, mainly for a drug called 'LV" that was supposed to treat breast cancer. Merck spent about $1.6 billion prior in partnership payments only to back out because Merck stated; "a new emerging treatment has come to light with better outcomes." But Merck was ready to pay $40 Billion for Seagen. Pfizer ended up buying Seagen for $43 billion. This is the article: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/seagan-...ack-burner
The other recent buyout discussions that took place with Merck is with Prometheus. In December 2022, Prometheus announced positive results for MK-7240 from ARTEMIS-UC, a Phase 2, placebo-controlled study evaluating safety and efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severely active UC and APOLLO-CD, and a Phase 2A, open-label study evaluating safety and efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severe CD. Merck bought Prometheus for $10.8 Billion after a phase 2 trial and phase 2A trial. Link to article: https://www.biospace.com/article/merck-leans-...theus-buy/
The THE ULCERATIVE COLITIS MARKET SIZE WAS VALUED AT USD 7.24 BILLION IN 2021 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH USD 12 BILLION BY 2027, GROWING AT A CAGR OF 8.77% DURING 2022-2027
The global Crohn's disease treatment market size is $11.68 Billion by end of 2023. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% until 2033 and be valued at $17.8 billion. (Future market insights
Between the two possible indications UC & CD) using the most recent valuations, the combined market size is $18.92 Billion. Merck paid $10.8 Billion for Prometheus. That's roughly 57% of the potential market size.
Let's look at Leronlimab and market potential: This was a market size analysis done by Synthesis 1
HIV market just in America is $14 Billion: The Global HIV Drugs Market was valued at USD 31.3 Billion in 2021 and is projected to reach a value of USD 40.3 Billion by 2028 at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 3.7% over the forecast period.
Cancers: Melanoma Full market value $8.19 billion 2019, Brain glioblastoma $2.83 billion 2021, Throat $1.48 Billion 2019, Lung $17.9 billion 2018, Stomach $2.6 billion 2018, Colon $15.3 billion 2020, Breast 21.58 2019 , Ovarian $2.9 Billion 2022, Pancreas $2.41 B 2020 The total listed here and I left a few off the tally: $75.19 Billion total but I am going to use just Breast and Colon: $36.88
NASH $84 Billion 2029 from Madrigal's press release
Market size for Leronlimab: Taking just HIV, NASH, and Breast/Colon cancer, we get: 152.18 Billion dollar market size, and that was all data that is a year or older. Not including any growth rates. If I use the 57% purchase price of the market size from Prometheus and use it on the $152.18 Market size of Leronlimab, we get an offer of $86.74 billion buyout. Is that the formula for this buyout?
What I am suggesting to the BoD is: whoever is trying to buy us out needs to understand from CytoDyn how we value the company's number one asset, 'Leronlimab'. The potential is enormous and Merck clearly showed that they are willing to pay for potential with Prometheus. If AI is being used to help with the discovery of value, then I am underestimating the potential of Leronliamb in my example. There is a plethora of articles citing CCR5 as a major contributor to many disease states and Ohm20 created a list of 90 possible indications that a CCR5 inhibitor could potentially treat. I only broke it down to 3 main indications. Plus, I don't have the time to break this down into market penetration and associated revenue for years 1 thru 5.
The below spreadsheet should help people understand why CYDY is not going to get three digits if CYDY gets Bought out in the 4-24 months. I am fairly confident that most of these buyouts all involve companies that had significant revenue when they got Bought. The buying companies all want to recoup their investments in a reasonable amount of time (5-8 years). If the first five years are trying to get FDA approval before revenue is initiated, then the buying company is going to discount that.
Below is a list of the Largest mergers and acquisitions:
Year Purchaser Target [1]Transaction type Value — with debt(in billions USD) Value — with debt(adjusted for inflation) Ref
1999 Pfizer Warner-Lambert Acquisition 111.8 204 [2]
2000 Glaxo Wellcome plc SmithKline Beecham (formed GlaxoSmithKline)Merger 76.0 134
2019 Bristol-Myers Squibb Celgene Acquisition 74.0 — 95.0 88 — 113 [3]
2004 Sanofi Aventis Acquisition 73.5 104
2015 Actavis Allergan, Inc Acquisition 70.5 91 [4][5][6]
2009 Pfizer Wyeth Acquisition 68.0 97
2002 Pfizer Pharmacia Acquisition 64.3 109 [7]
2018 Takeda Pharmaceutical Shire Acquisition 62.0 75 [8]
2016 Bayer Monsanto Acquisition 54.5 — 63.5 69 — 81
2009 Merck & Co. Schering-Plough Acquisition 47.1 67 [9]
2009 Roche Genentech Acquisition 44.0 62
2014 Medtronic Covidien Acquisition 42.3 54
2015 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Actavis Business Unit 40.5 52
2010 Novartis Alcon Acquisition 39.3 55
2016 Shire Baxalta Acquisition Unit 32.0 — 35.0 41 — 44
2016 Abbott Laboratories St Jude Medical Acquisition 30.5 39
1998 Astra AB Zeneca (formed AstraZeneca)Merger 30.4 57
2017 Johnson & Johnson Actelion Acquisition 30.0 37
1996 Ciba-Geigy Sandoz (formed Novartis)Merger 29.0 56
2006 Boston Scientific Abbott Laboratories Guidant Acquisition 27.2 41
1999 Pharmacia & Upjohn Monsanto Merger 25.2 46
2016 Abbott Laboratories St Jude Medical Acquisition 25.0 — 30.5 32 — 39
2015 AbbVie Pharmacyclics Acquisition 21.0 27
2014 Actavis Forest Laboratories Acquisition 20.7 27
2011 Sanofi Genzyme Corporation Acquisition 20.1 27
2012 Johnson & Johnson Synthes Acquisition 19.7 26
2006 Bayer Schering Acquisition 18.4 28
2016 Quintiles IMS Health (formed QuintilesIMS)Merger 17.6 22
2015 Pfizer Hospira Acquisition 17.0 22
2014 Merck Group Sigma-Aldrich Acquisition 17.0 22
2001 Amgen Immunex Acquisition 16.8 29
2006 Johnson & Johnson Pfizer Consumer Health Business Unit 16.6 25
2014 Novartis GlaxoSmithKline Oncology Business Unit 16.0 21
2015 Valeant Salix Pharmaceuticals Acquisition 15.8 20
2007 AstraZeneca MedImmune Acquisition 14.7 22
2007 Schering Plough Organon International Acquisition 14.5 21
1995 Glaxo Wellcome Acquisition 14.2 28
2014 Bayer Merck & Co Consumer Health Business Unit 14.2 18
2014 Zimmer Inc. Biomet Inc. Acquisition 13.4 17
2019 Amgen Otezla (drug programme) Acquisition 13.4 16
2006 Merck Group Serono Acquisition 13.2 20
2018 GlaxoSmithKline GlaxoSmithKline–Novartis Consumer Healthcare Acquisition 13.0 16
2016 Boehringer Ingelheim Sanofi MerialAnimal Health ( ) Business Unit 12.4 16
2017 Gilead Sciences Kite Pharma Acquisition 11.9 15
2018 Sanofi Bioverativ Acquisition 11.6 14
2011 Gilead Sciences Pharmasset Acquisition 11.2 15
2013 Amgen Onyx Pharmaceuticals Acquisition 10.4 14
2020 AbbVie Allergan Acquisition 63.0 74
2024 Novo Holdings A/S Catalent Acquisition 16.5 17
When GSK finally buys CYDY, they will be buying whatever debt that CYDY has at that time. That's why I like the spreadsheet above because it shows how much debt was at play during the buyout. Most of the time, the debt is paid off immediately or gets absorbed and is paid back in roughly the same manner/terms that existed before the buyout. In other words, the debt transfers with the new owners.
For the Crowd that believes that CYDY should hold out for $100 per share or as high as $999 per share. Let's see how that LOOKS TO THE BIG BOY purchases above.
$100 x 1.23 Billion shares outstanding = $123 Billion for CYDY, with no revenue. That would be the LARGEST buyout in the HISTORY of pharmaceuticals.
Do I want to get $100 per share? Of course, but I know the risks and how long that would take. I am hoping a buyout happens before the end of 2025. My best comparable is Prometheus. I shared the Prometheus stats above. No doubt that LL, and Long Lasting LL has way more value and 3X to 4X over the $10.8 billion buyout price is what I think CYDY can fairly argue and negotiate. That 3X to 4X translates to: $32.4 Billion to $43.2 billion. which translates to $26.34 per share or $35.12 per share.
Have a SUPER SUNDAY and Go CYDY!
My Valuation of CYDY
Dear Longs,
My apologies for posting again; but my time is limited in the next few weeks and I wanted to get this off my chest. If there is a buyout, how will CYDY be evaluated?
As I mentioned in the past, I have not been in the board room while these negotiations took place. However, I supplied market information to help our side in the talks. I was fortunate enough to get some of the details after some of the meetings, or I had to wait to hear the details after the official announcement. Nonetheless, I received great insights on how some of the numbers were bantered about.
Priorities on the valuation:, no particular order!
Market Potential in the indications that are most probable for the drug to receive FDA approval in the next 5 years.
potential market penetration into each indication. Or Market share in years 1 thru 5
How competitive that indication is currently and what is known to be upcoming competition in those various indications.
What phase of development the drug is currently in. Pre-clinical, Phase 1, Phase 2 or 3
How efficacious it is to date in those early trials, what spend will it take to go to the next phases, including the pivotal phase 3 trials.
How much does it cost to take it to market?
Current Debt
Comparable buyouts. Not stock price but overall payouts, including debt. Stock price is not talked about. Every company has different outstanding share counts. What matters is the billions that will be exchanged for the assets.
Current revenue (None for CYDY)
Current FDA approvals (None for CYDY, yet)
How much does the buying company discount for no revenue, and no FDA approval. They run all of these market numbers, penetration, competition and other factors; then the buying company suddenly says we will offer 75% less because we have to finish the potential. It is a discount to the valuation because it won't be realized for 1 - 5 years, depending.
There is a ton of other factors that influence the valuation and I will not be able to cover even 10% of all of those. But, I wanted to give you all a taste of what will go down when it starts to get exciting during the negotiations.
Personally, I want CYDY to maximize our valuation as much as possible but balance that out with the risks that exist. The days of three fingers are over unless we go with a partner for so many years and that is without encountering any risks to the markets we participate in.
I'll list three risks that I had given to response to another post sometime ago:
There are also risks down the road, nothing is ever guaranteed. Many times I have seen other companies that should have sold earlier hold out for something better and several things happened:
the market conditions changed - In the Pharma space Medicare sets the standard on reimbursement and other private insurance use that as a standard for their own reimbursement policies. But, as the Baby Boomer generation continues to move almost completely into the 65 years and older category it is draining the heck out of the Medicare Funds. In 2025 Medicare will officially be operating in a deficit. It is very possible that Medicare and our wonderful Congressional policy leaders will put huge restrictions on drug pricing and pricing increasing to help keep Medicare solvent. The pharmaceutical world and their associated stock prices will be negatively affected and so will the value of an up and coming pharma company like CYDY. This is a HIGH RISK area and I hope it does not kick in, but you never know.
Today, there is high hope for Long Acting LL. No matter what, I hope that it works like we all hope it will. But, I can not tell you how many times I have seen the BIG HOPE project that will take our company over the top FAIL. BackwardsK in a response to another post said: In the biotech world there is a OLD saying; " Monkeys Lie and Mice exaggerate". Every biotech has had the experience of animal studies going well, and showing tremendous promise. Then when the human phases start it does not make it across the finish line. Should've sold when it was considered promising.
Every Pharma company is using AI to accelerate development. As freaking good as LL is, there might be a better formula out there eventually. Some AI just might develop a better drug for all of the indications we are going after.
All I am saying with just three above examples (there are more) is you take a risk waiting for a better offer and rolling the dice that everything in the future is going to be smooth sailing. If we do not get what I think is a fair offer, I am all for trying to increase the value of CYDY, by partnering and hitting milestones that carry more value. In the end, I am aware of some of the risks ahead, but its the risks you don't see coming are the ones that really hurt the most.
Let's TAKE A LOOK AT CYDY's POTENTIAL VALUE:
I think that CYDY Leadership and the BoD of CytoDyn can and should be confident that Leronlimab has the potential to be bigger than Humira and Keytruda combined. But, it would take at least 12 - 15+ years to achieve as many indications as those two drugs have. Both of those drugs are roughly $20 billion each annually. And both drugs are under attack. They are losing patent protection and biosimilars are biting at their ankles and will soon be biting off their legs. I can almost guarantee that the buying BP company is not going to value anything past five years.
Great that CYDY leadership will hold out for a fair offer but what is a fair offer when one side is high and the other is low? That is when they start to look at comparables:
Information on Merck's acquisition activities:
Merck was in discussions with a company called Seagen. They actually were in discussions to buy Seagen out for $40 Billion dollars, mainly for a drug called 'LV" that was supposed to treat breast cancer. Merck spent about $1.6 billion prior in partnership payments only to back out because Merck stated; "a new emerging treatment has come to light with better outcomes." But Merck was ready to pay $40 Billion for Seagen. Pfizer ended up buying Seagen for $43 billion. This is the article: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/seagan-...ack-burner
The other recent buyout discussions that took place with Merck is with Prometheus. In December 2022, Prometheus announced positive results for MK-7240 from ARTEMIS-UC, a Phase 2, placebo-controlled study evaluating safety and efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severely active UC and APOLLO-CD, and a Phase 2A, open-label study evaluating safety and efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severe CD. Merck bought Prometheus for $10.8 Billion after a phase 2 trial and phase 2A trial. Link to article: https://www.biospace.com/article/merck-leans-...theus-buy/
The THE ULCERATIVE COLITIS MARKET SIZE WAS VALUED AT USD 7.24 BILLION IN 2021 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH USD 12 BILLION BY 2027, GROWING AT A CAGR OF 8.77% DURING 2022-2027
The global Crohn's disease treatment market size is $11.68 Billion by end of 2023. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% until 2033 and be valued at $17.8 billion. (Future market insights
Between the two possible indications UC & CD) using the most recent valuations, the combined market size is $18.92 Billion. Merck paid $10.8 Billion for Prometheus. That's roughly 57% of the potential market size.
Let's look at Leronlimab and market potential: This was a market size analysis done by Synthesis 1
HIV market just in America is $14 Billion: The Global HIV Drugs Market was valued at USD 31.3 Billion in 2021 and is projected to reach a value of USD 40.3 Billion by 2028 at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 3.7% over the forecast period.
Cancers: Melanoma Full market value $8.19 billion 2019, Brain glioblastoma $2.83 billion 2021, Throat $1.48 Billion 2019, Lung $17.9 billion 2018, Stomach $2.6 billion 2018, Colon $15.3 billion 2020, Breast 21.58 2019 , Ovarian $2.9 Billion 2022, Pancreas $2.41 B 2020 The total listed here and I left a few off the tally: $75.19 Billion total but I am going to use just Breast and Colon: $36.88
NASH $84 Billion 2029 from Madrigal's press release
Market size for Leronlimab: Taking just HIV, NASH, and Breast/Colon cancer, we get: 152.18 Billion dollar market size, and that was all data that is a year or older. Not including any growth rates. If I use the 57% purchase price of the market size from Prometheus and use it on the $152.18 Market size of Leronlimab, we get an offer of $86.74 billion buyout. Is that the formula for this buyout?
What I am suggesting to the BoD is: whoever is trying to buy us out needs to understand from CytoDyn how we value the company's number one asset, 'Leronlimab'. The potential is enormous and Merck clearly showed that they are willing to pay for potential with Prometheus. If AI is being used to help with the discovery of value, then I am underestimating the potential of Leronliamb in my example. There is a plethora of articles citing CCR5 as a major contributor to many disease states and Ohm20 created a list of 90 possible indications that a CCR5 inhibitor could potentially treat. I only broke it down to 3 main indications. Plus, I don't have the time to break this down into market penetration and associated revenue for years 1 thru 5.
The below spreadsheet should help people understand why CYDY is not going to get three digits if CYDY gets Bought out in the 4-24 months. I am fairly confident that most of these buyouts all involve companies that had significant revenue when they got Bought. The buying companies all want to recoup their investments in a reasonable amount of time (5-8 years). If the first five years are trying to get FDA approval before revenue is initiated, then the buying company is going to discount that.
Below is a list of the Largest mergers and acquisitions:
Year Purchaser Target [1]Transaction type Value — with debt(in billions USD) Value — with debt(adjusted for inflation) Ref
1999 Pfizer Warner-Lambert Acquisition 111.8 204 [2]
2000 Glaxo Wellcome plc SmithKline Beecham (formed GlaxoSmithKline)Merger 76.0 134
2019 Bristol-Myers Squibb Celgene Acquisition 74.0 — 95.0 88 — 113 [3]
2004 Sanofi Aventis Acquisition 73.5 104
2015 Actavis Allergan, Inc Acquisition 70.5 91 [4][5][6]
2009 Pfizer Wyeth Acquisition 68.0 97
2002 Pfizer Pharmacia Acquisition 64.3 109 [7]
2018 Takeda Pharmaceutical Shire Acquisition 62.0 75 [8]
2016 Bayer Monsanto Acquisition 54.5 — 63.5 69 — 81
2009 Merck & Co. Schering-Plough Acquisition 47.1 67 [9]
2009 Roche Genentech Acquisition 44.0 62
2014 Medtronic Covidien Acquisition 42.3 54
2015 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Actavis Business Unit 40.5 52
2010 Novartis Alcon Acquisition 39.3 55
2016 Shire Baxalta Acquisition Unit 32.0 — 35.0 41 — 44
2016 Abbott Laboratories St Jude Medical Acquisition 30.5 39
1998 Astra AB Zeneca (formed AstraZeneca)Merger 30.4 57
2017 Johnson & Johnson Actelion Acquisition 30.0 37
1996 Ciba-Geigy Sandoz (formed Novartis)Merger 29.0 56
2006 Boston Scientific Abbott Laboratories Guidant Acquisition 27.2 41
1999 Pharmacia & Upjohn Monsanto Merger 25.2 46
2016 Abbott Laboratories St Jude Medical Acquisition 25.0 — 30.5 32 — 39
2015 AbbVie Pharmacyclics Acquisition 21.0 27
2014 Actavis Forest Laboratories Acquisition 20.7 27
2011 Sanofi Genzyme Corporation Acquisition 20.1 27
2012 Johnson & Johnson Synthes Acquisition 19.7 26
2006 Bayer Schering Acquisition 18.4 28
2016 Quintiles IMS Health (formed QuintilesIMS)Merger 17.6 22
2015 Pfizer Hospira Acquisition 17.0 22
2014 Merck Group Sigma-Aldrich Acquisition 17.0 22
2001 Amgen Immunex Acquisition 16.8 29
2006 Johnson & Johnson Pfizer Consumer Health Business Unit 16.6 25
2014 Novartis GlaxoSmithKline Oncology Business Unit 16.0 21
2015 Valeant Salix Pharmaceuticals Acquisition 15.8 20
2007 AstraZeneca MedImmune Acquisition 14.7 22
2007 Schering Plough Organon International Acquisition 14.5 21
1995 Glaxo Wellcome Acquisition 14.2 28
2014 Bayer Merck & Co Consumer Health Business Unit 14.2 18
2014 Zimmer Inc. Biomet Inc. Acquisition 13.4 17
2019 Amgen Otezla (drug programme) Acquisition 13.4 16
2006 Merck Group Serono Acquisition 13.2 20
2018 GlaxoSmithKline GlaxoSmithKline–Novartis Consumer Healthcare Acquisition 13.0 16
2016 Boehringer Ingelheim Sanofi MerialAnimal Health ( ) Business Unit 12.4 16
2017 Gilead Sciences Kite Pharma Acquisition 11.9 15
2018 Sanofi Bioverativ Acquisition 11.6 14
2011 Gilead Sciences Pharmasset Acquisition 11.2 15
2013 Amgen Onyx Pharmaceuticals Acquisition 10.4 14
2020 AbbVie Allergan Acquisition 63.0 74
2024 Novo Holdings A/S Catalent Acquisition 16.5 17
When GSK finally buys CYDY, they will be buying whatever debt that CYDY has at that time. That's why I like the spreadsheet above because it shows how much debt was at play during the buyout. Most of the time, the debt is paid off immediately or gets absorbed and is paid back in roughly the same manner/terms that existed before the buyout. In other words, the debt transfers with the new owners.
For the Crowd that believes that CYDY should hold out for $100 per share or as high as $999 per share. Let's see how that LOOKS TO THE BIG BOY purchases above.
$100 x 1.23 Billion shares outstanding = $123 Billion for CYDY, with no revenue. That would be the LARGEST buyout in the HISTORY of pharmaceuticals.
Do I want to get $100 per share? Of course, but I know the risks and how long that would take. I am hoping a buyout happens before the end of 2025. My best comparable is Prometheus. I shared the Prometheus stats above. No doubt that LL, and Long Lasting LL has way more value and 3X to 4X over the $10.8 billion buyout price is what I think CYDY can fairly argue and negotiate. That 3X to 4X translates to: $32.4 Billion to $43.2 billion. which translates to $26.34 per share or $35.12 per share.
Have a SUPER SUNDAY and Go CYDY!
12
