From 3331 on the other board: WHICH CATALYST WI
Post# of 8390
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Posted On: 12/22/2024 8:02:44 AM
From 3331 on the other board:
WHICH CATALYST WILL BE FIRST?
1000 Veterinarian Clinics (USA):
Conservatively assume each office orders 10/mo. @ $100 each for BIEL (Vet sells for $200, a bargain compared to Assisi):
1000 x 100 x 10 x 12 = $12,000,000 rev/year.
100 VA Hospitals:
Conservatively assume each hospital orders 100 RecoveryRx per month ($100 each for BIEL):
100 x 100 x 100 x 12 = $12,000,000 rev/year.
Using profit = $20 mil and P/E = 100:
PPS = .08!
Additional revenue could be generated from new FDA clearances, vagus nerve patent, NPA, UK/Australia contract rumor, etc. Initiating a stock buyback program after all of the loans are paid off would propel the pps much higher (pps = .25 to $1?).
ADDITIONAL CATALYST:
Here are some additional numbers using Taiwan as a catalyst, using beacham's conservative numbers of 1% market penetration w/$10 profit/unit yields $43 million revenue:
$3 million = break even, cash flow positive: pps = .01.
Each additional $2.5 million/year should result in an additional .01 increase in pps (P/E = 100).
For revenue = $43 million, profit = $40 million (and applying the tax loss carryforward), resulting pps =
.16 (P/E = 100)
.32 (P/E = 200)
.48 (P/E = 300)
However, there are several factors that indicate this estimate might be extremely conservative, such as:
1) Taiwan appears to be using the RecoveryRx (requires doctor approval) version of Actipatch (OTC), which would have a higher profit than $10/unit.
2) market penetration will likely be higher than 1%.
Therefore, a case could be made for increasing the above estimates 10-fold or more (although tax would then need to be factored in). Now factor in the VA, veterinary, and other rumored contracts (if they materialize), and you're taking some serious money!
ANOTHER BIEL VALUATION MEASURE: QUBT hit $27/share recently, even though their revenue last year ($358k) was half that of BIEL ($715k). Accounting for the difference in outstanding shares (25 bil vs 100 mil), BIEL pps = .10 is the equivalent valuation to QUBT = $27/share.
WATCH AND LEARN!
Bullish
BULLISH
WHICH CATALYST WILL BE FIRST?
1000 Veterinarian Clinics (USA):
Conservatively assume each office orders 10/mo. @ $100 each for BIEL (Vet sells for $200, a bargain compared to Assisi):
1000 x 100 x 10 x 12 = $12,000,000 rev/year.
100 VA Hospitals:
Conservatively assume each hospital orders 100 RecoveryRx per month ($100 each for BIEL):
100 x 100 x 100 x 12 = $12,000,000 rev/year.
Using profit = $20 mil and P/E = 100:
PPS = .08!
Additional revenue could be generated from new FDA clearances, vagus nerve patent, NPA, UK/Australia contract rumor, etc. Initiating a stock buyback program after all of the loans are paid off would propel the pps much higher (pps = .25 to $1?).
ADDITIONAL CATALYST:
Here are some additional numbers using Taiwan as a catalyst, using beacham's conservative numbers of 1% market penetration w/$10 profit/unit yields $43 million revenue:
$3 million = break even, cash flow positive: pps = .01.
Each additional $2.5 million/year should result in an additional .01 increase in pps (P/E = 100).
For revenue = $43 million, profit = $40 million (and applying the tax loss carryforward), resulting pps =
.16 (P/E = 100)
.32 (P/E = 200)
.48 (P/E = 300)
However, there are several factors that indicate this estimate might be extremely conservative, such as:
1) Taiwan appears to be using the RecoveryRx (requires doctor approval) version of Actipatch (OTC), which would have a higher profit than $10/unit.
2) market penetration will likely be higher than 1%.
Therefore, a case could be made for increasing the above estimates 10-fold or more (although tax would then need to be factored in). Now factor in the VA, veterinary, and other rumored contracts (if they materialize), and you're taking some serious money!
ANOTHER BIEL VALUATION MEASURE: QUBT hit $27/share recently, even though their revenue last year ($358k) was half that of BIEL ($715k). Accounting for the difference in outstanding shares (25 bil vs 100 mil), BIEL pps = .10 is the equivalent valuation to QUBT = $27/share.
WATCH AND LEARN!
Bullish
BULLISH
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