Since we're all throwing out opinions, here's mine
Post# of 154675
(Total Views: 706)
Posted On: 07/10/2024 12:29:31 AM
Since we're all throwing out opinions, here's mine: I think we all expected to be victorious in this arbitration but expected more than the company actually expected to win. Your starting place in a negotiation should never be where you're willing to agree. You start out big and come down (or start low and come up depending on the side you're on). We could have given estimates showing that Amarex cost us hundreds of millions of dollars and they could have given estimates showing that they didn't really cost us anything because the industry didn't like our once a week treatment with the blipping that Dr. J talked about. I don't think an arbitrator would have awarded us money on potential other indications that we might have succeeded in had we gotten the approval on an indication that Dr. J said people weren't really interested in us for.
So lets say we started out at $100m and they may have started out at negative $14m owed + interest (for us). The average of $100m and -$14m is $43m, if you include interest on their $14m the average is slightly lower than the $43m, we ended up at a $32.5m benefit. This seems like a pretty fair settlement in my opinion. When you consider that we need cash and we really just care about starting our two new trials right now, it looks even better. Let's go knock these two trials out of the park without worrying about how we're going to raise the funds and then we can worry about next steps once we look like the crown jewel we all think we are.
I will say though, for the future, my opinion would be to not over-hype ourselves on the grandiose potential, rather figure out what we'd actually be happy with and you'll end up a lot closer to what reality will be. For example, I do think there's a chance we get bought out for $10-$20/share in the next year or two, something bigger than that is going to take 3-5+ years in my opinion. If I'm wrong and we sell for something bigger in a short period of time, it's just gravy.
So lets say we started out at $100m and they may have started out at negative $14m owed + interest (for us). The average of $100m and -$14m is $43m, if you include interest on their $14m the average is slightly lower than the $43m, we ended up at a $32.5m benefit. This seems like a pretty fair settlement in my opinion. When you consider that we need cash and we really just care about starting our two new trials right now, it looks even better. Let's go knock these two trials out of the park without worrying about how we're going to raise the funds and then we can worry about next steps once we look like the crown jewel we all think we are.
I will say though, for the future, my opinion would be to not over-hype ourselves on the grandiose potential, rather figure out what we'd actually be happy with and you'll end up a lot closer to what reality will be. For example, I do think there's a chance we get bought out for $10-$20/share in the next year or two, something bigger than that is going to take 3-5+ years in my opinion. If I'm wrong and we sell for something bigger in a short period of time, it's just gravy.
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