There's no opposition to Biden in the dem primarie
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Posted On: 03/04/2024 5:38:22 PM
There's no opposition to Biden in the dem primaries, nothing at stake.
Trump's numbers are not that impressive.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inter...ics-shift/
One of the most pronounced shifts is in the age of Trump’s base. Voters 65 and over made up a minority of his base in 2016. This year, they’re the largest group in terms of age.
Young Republicans have turned from him. Voters under 50 accounted for 37 percent of his base at this point in the 2016 campaign; now, they make up less than 29 percent. His share of middle-aged voters is also down, falling from nearly 40 percent to about 35 percent.
Older Americans vote at higher levels than other age groups, so Trump benefits by performing well with them. But he’ll struggle to defeat President Biden in November without peeling off some younger voters, who played an outsize role in Biden’s 2020 victory.
Also apparent in primary exit polling is Trump’s reshaping of the Republican Party. As the GOP has lurched to the right, so has his base. More than 52 percent of his voters so far described themselves as “very conservative,” up from about 32 percent during his first run.
The share of his voters describing themselves as “somewhat conservative” fell from 46 percent to 38 percent. Less than 10 percent of Trump voters described themselves as “moderate,” down from more than 20 percent.
It’s unclear whether this trend will serve Trump in the general election. Nationwide, more Americans identify as conservative on social issues and economic issues than at any point since 2012, according to polling from Gallup last year. But Republicans accounted for the bulk of that shift, with independents moving only somewhat to the right.
There’s also evidence that swing voters are turned off by hard-right candidates, many of whom lost close contests in the 2022 midterms. Independents may be fed up with Biden, but they also may be wary of a GOP they view as too radical.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade and the ending of the constitutional right to an abortion has already cost the Republican Party. But in the early primaries, it doesn’t appear to have hurt Trump’s standing among Republican women, who made up a slightly larger share of his base than eight years ago.
He still performed far better among men, who accounted for 54 percent of his supporters in the first three states. But predictions about Republican women fleeing to other candidates after the Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs decision haven’t borne out so far.
Outside the party, it’s a different story. Recent polling shows female registered voters support Biden by a more than 20-point margin, up from just two months ago. Trump will need more than just Republican women to close that gap.
Trump's numbers are not that impressive.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inter...ics-shift/
One of the most pronounced shifts is in the age of Trump’s base. Voters 65 and over made up a minority of his base in 2016. This year, they’re the largest group in terms of age.
Young Republicans have turned from him. Voters under 50 accounted for 37 percent of his base at this point in the 2016 campaign; now, they make up less than 29 percent. His share of middle-aged voters is also down, falling from nearly 40 percent to about 35 percent.
Older Americans vote at higher levels than other age groups, so Trump benefits by performing well with them. But he’ll struggle to defeat President Biden in November without peeling off some younger voters, who played an outsize role in Biden’s 2020 victory.
Also apparent in primary exit polling is Trump’s reshaping of the Republican Party. As the GOP has lurched to the right, so has his base. More than 52 percent of his voters so far described themselves as “very conservative,” up from about 32 percent during his first run.
The share of his voters describing themselves as “somewhat conservative” fell from 46 percent to 38 percent. Less than 10 percent of Trump voters described themselves as “moderate,” down from more than 20 percent.
It’s unclear whether this trend will serve Trump in the general election. Nationwide, more Americans identify as conservative on social issues and economic issues than at any point since 2012, according to polling from Gallup last year. But Republicans accounted for the bulk of that shift, with independents moving only somewhat to the right.
There’s also evidence that swing voters are turned off by hard-right candidates, many of whom lost close contests in the 2022 midterms. Independents may be fed up with Biden, but they also may be wary of a GOP they view as too radical.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade and the ending of the constitutional right to an abortion has already cost the Republican Party. But in the early primaries, it doesn’t appear to have hurt Trump’s standing among Republican women, who made up a slightly larger share of his base than eight years ago.
He still performed far better among men, who accounted for 54 percent of his supporters in the first three states. But predictions about Republican women fleeing to other candidates after the Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs decision haven’t borne out so far.
Outside the party, it’s a different story. Recent polling shows female registered voters support Biden by a more than 20-point margin, up from just two months ago. Trump will need more than just Republican women to close that gap.
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