IOWA TELLS US:
Nearly a third of Republican caucusgoers told pollsters that Trump would not be “fit” for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime — a sizable defection that, if it held, would likely doom Trump’s general election chances.
Polling in this area is challenging, so it is best to take this figure with a considerable grain of salt. Some portion of these people, for instance, may believe Trump would literally be incapable of serving as president if convicted of a crime — perhaps because he would immediately be hauled off to prison or disqualified — which is not true, and which they would eventually come to learn if things moved in that direction.
But what is clear is that some lingering courtroom questions are now essential electoral questions as well: When will Trump’s myriad trials take place? And can any jury deliver a verdict before this November?
The answers are crucial to understanding how the 2024 campaign could ultimately unfold. Over the coming year, federal and state prosecutors, defense attorneys and judges — including the Supreme Court — will have to maneuver amid an inflexible political calendar. Here’s the timeline for how it’s likely to go.
Among All Trump’s Trials, the Jan. 6 Case Is Key
For both political and legal reasons, the most important case is the Justice Department’s prosecution over Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election.
Even before the Iowa caucuses survey, recent polling data suggested that a criminal conviction of Trump, particularly for election subversion, could ultimately sink his reelection bid if he is the GOP nominee. Everything about this is unprecedented, so there is no way to know for sure how reliable or accurate these figures are, but at this point, the trial in Washington looms over Trump’s campaign like a dagger.
From a legal perspective, the three other pending criminal cases against Trump — in Manhattan, Florida and Georgia — do not pose as potent a threat at the moment.
That’s partly because state prosecutors are willing to defer to the Department of Justice and special counsel Jack Smith. Indeed, in Manhattan, District Attorney Alvin Bragg has indicated he would be amenable to moving his trial date, which is currently for March 25, so as not to conflict with the federal prosecution. But even if Trump is ultimately tried and convicted this year, the state law charges — which concern alleged hush money payments made to the adult film star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election — are not likely to result in serious prison time (if any).
Nearly a third of Republican caucusgoers told pollsters that Trump would not be “fit” for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime — a sizable defection that, if it held, would likely doom Trump’s general election chances.
Polling in this area is challenging, so it is best to take this figure with a considerable grain of salt. Some portion of these people, for instance, may believe Trump would literally be incapable of serving as president if convicted of a crime — perhaps because he would immediately be hauled off to prison or disqualified — which is not true, and which they would eventually come to learn if things moved in that direction.
But what is clear is that some lingering courtroom questions are now essential electoral questions as well: When will Trump’s myriad trials take place? And can any jury deliver a verdict before this November?
The answers are crucial to understanding how the 2024 campaign could ultimately unfold. Over the coming year, federal and state prosecutors, defense attorneys and judges — including the Supreme Court — will have to maneuver amid an inflexible political calendar. Here’s the timeline for how it’s likely to go.
Among All Trump’s Trials, the Jan. 6 Case Is Key
For both political and legal reasons, the most important case is the Justice Department’s prosecution over Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election.
Even before the Iowa caucuses survey, recent polling data suggested that a criminal conviction of Trump, particularly for election subversion, could ultimately sink his reelection bid if he is the GOP nominee. Everything about this is unprecedented, so there is no way to know for sure how reliable or accurate these figures are, but at this point, the trial in Washington looms over Trump’s campaign like a dagger.
From a legal perspective, the three other pending criminal cases against Trump — in Manhattan, Florida and Georgia — do not pose as potent a threat at the moment.
That’s partly because state prosecutors are willing to defer to the Department of Justice and special counsel Jack Smith. Indeed, in Manhattan, District Attorney Alvin Bragg has indicated he would be amenable to moving his trial date, which is currently for March 25, so as not to conflict with the federal prosecution. But even if Trump is ultimately tried and convicted this year, the state law charges — which concern alleged hush money payments made to the adult film star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election — are not likely to result in serious prison time (if any).
