Hey Wow, suck on some unpleasant FACTS. If the GOP had the answer to crime they'd be leading by example. They ain't. Quite the opposite.
Published January 27, 2023
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decad...er-problem
The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
Takeaways
The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
Republicans have made crime a major selling point over the past several elections. In 2020 and 2022, they ran ads accusing Democratic candidates of wanting to “defund the police”– a position held by only a handful of fringe Democratic officeholders. In October 2022, one-quarter of ads from Republican candidates and PACs focused on crime. Republican-aligned Fox News aired, on average, 141 segments on crime across weekdays in the two months leading up to the midterms. In the week after the midterm, their coverage of violent crime dropped by 50%.
In March of 2022, we released a report that found murder rates in 2020 were 40% higher in Trump-voting states than Biden-voting states. In this follow-up report, we studied homicide data going back to 2000 to see if this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly. It was not. Despite a media narrative to the contrary, a wide and widening Red State murder gap has spanned the past two decades.
In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states.
All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing data–New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.
In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state’s per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.
We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded the murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this century. Cumulatively, overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23% higher in Trump-voting states. For the past 21 years, the top 10 murder rate states have been dominated by reliably red states, namely Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri.
Even when we removed the county with the largest city in Trump-voting states (and kept them in for Biden-voting states), murder rates were still significantly higher in these red states.
And while media reports give the impression that murder rates are skyrocketing in blue areas, murder rates have actually increased at far higher rates in Trump-voting states over the past two decades, widening the Red State murder gap from a low of 9% in 2003 and 2004 to a high of 44% in 2019, before falling to 43% in 2020. Since 2000, murder rates have increased 39.4% in red states and just 13.4% in blue states.
There is a media and political narrative that crime is a Democratic problem, occurring mostly in big blue cities and fueled by lax policies. While murder is by no means the only crime in America, it is the most serious. And as far as murder is concerned, it is a bigger problem in red states than blue states and only becoming more so. As we noted in our last report, Republicans do a much better job blaming others for crime than actually stopping it.
The murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded Biden-voting states every year this century.
Despite the “Democrat-caused crime crisis,” murder rates in Trump-voting states have been higher than Biden-voting states every single year this century (see graph below). In 2000, the murder rate in Trump-voting states was 6.35 per 100,000 residents compared to Biden states’ 5.47 per 100,000 residents, 16% higher. At its lowest, in 2003 and 2004, murder rates in Trump states were 9% higher than in Biden states. At its highest, in 2019, murder rates in Trump states were 44% higher than in Biden states.
Overall, when looking at 2000-2020, murder rates were on average 23% higher in Trump states. The average murder rate in Trump states between 2000 and 2020 was 6.44 per 100,000 residents compared to 5.23 per 100,000 residents in Biden states. If Biden states had the same murder rate as Trump states, they would have seen 5,000 more murders in 2020 alone. Between 2000 and 2020, they would have suffered an additional 45,400 murders.
Conclusion
On a typical day, about 65 Americans are murdered. If we watch the cable networks, we’re likely to hear about one of them. The one that is chosen often fits a narrative that is as familiar as it is shallow. It may cohere with a political point a network wants to make – chaos in Democratic cities, an illegal immigrant committing a brazen and lethal act. Usually, it’s a murder in New York City or Los Angeles, two cities that actually have murder rates far lower than many states.
These crime stories aren’t inaccurate, but they are curated. And when we see them every day they create an impression of crime and murder in America that tells only a part of the story.
When we released “The Red State Murder Problem” in March 2022 showing that murder rates in Trump-voting states in 2020 were far higher than Biden-voting states, the reaction was incredulity. That is because the news stories we see each day tell us something different.
But the numbers don’t lie. It is our hope that with this report we can create a more accurate political discussion about crime. And perhaps with a more holistic political discussion, we can do more to actually reduce violent and lethal crime.
Published January 27, 2023
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decad...er-problem
The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
Takeaways
The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
Republicans have made crime a major selling point over the past several elections. In 2020 and 2022, they ran ads accusing Democratic candidates of wanting to “defund the police”– a position held by only a handful of fringe Democratic officeholders. In October 2022, one-quarter of ads from Republican candidates and PACs focused on crime. Republican-aligned Fox News aired, on average, 141 segments on crime across weekdays in the two months leading up to the midterms. In the week after the midterm, their coverage of violent crime dropped by 50%.
In March of 2022, we released a report that found murder rates in 2020 were 40% higher in Trump-voting states than Biden-voting states. In this follow-up report, we studied homicide data going back to 2000 to see if this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly. It was not. Despite a media narrative to the contrary, a wide and widening Red State murder gap has spanned the past two decades.
In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states.
All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing data–New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.
In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state’s per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.
We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded the murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this century. Cumulatively, overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23% higher in Trump-voting states. For the past 21 years, the top 10 murder rate states have been dominated by reliably red states, namely Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri.
Even when we removed the county with the largest city in Trump-voting states (and kept them in for Biden-voting states), murder rates were still significantly higher in these red states.
And while media reports give the impression that murder rates are skyrocketing in blue areas, murder rates have actually increased at far higher rates in Trump-voting states over the past two decades, widening the Red State murder gap from a low of 9% in 2003 and 2004 to a high of 44% in 2019, before falling to 43% in 2020. Since 2000, murder rates have increased 39.4% in red states and just 13.4% in blue states.
There is a media and political narrative that crime is a Democratic problem, occurring mostly in big blue cities and fueled by lax policies. While murder is by no means the only crime in America, it is the most serious. And as far as murder is concerned, it is a bigger problem in red states than blue states and only becoming more so. As we noted in our last report, Republicans do a much better job blaming others for crime than actually stopping it.
The murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded Biden-voting states every year this century.
Despite the “Democrat-caused crime crisis,” murder rates in Trump-voting states have been higher than Biden-voting states every single year this century (see graph below). In 2000, the murder rate in Trump-voting states was 6.35 per 100,000 residents compared to Biden states’ 5.47 per 100,000 residents, 16% higher. At its lowest, in 2003 and 2004, murder rates in Trump states were 9% higher than in Biden states. At its highest, in 2019, murder rates in Trump states were 44% higher than in Biden states.
Overall, when looking at 2000-2020, murder rates were on average 23% higher in Trump states. The average murder rate in Trump states between 2000 and 2020 was 6.44 per 100,000 residents compared to 5.23 per 100,000 residents in Biden states. If Biden states had the same murder rate as Trump states, they would have seen 5,000 more murders in 2020 alone. Between 2000 and 2020, they would have suffered an additional 45,400 murders.
Conclusion
On a typical day, about 65 Americans are murdered. If we watch the cable networks, we’re likely to hear about one of them. The one that is chosen often fits a narrative that is as familiar as it is shallow. It may cohere with a political point a network wants to make – chaos in Democratic cities, an illegal immigrant committing a brazen and lethal act. Usually, it’s a murder in New York City or Los Angeles, two cities that actually have murder rates far lower than many states.
These crime stories aren’t inaccurate, but they are curated. And when we see them every day they create an impression of crime and murder in America that tells only a part of the story.
When we released “The Red State Murder Problem” in March 2022 showing that murder rates in Trump-voting states in 2020 were far higher than Biden-voting states, the reaction was incredulity. That is because the news stories we see each day tell us something different.
But the numbers don’t lie. It is our hope that with this report we can create a more accurate political discussion about crime. And perhaps with a more holistic political discussion, we can do more to actually reduce violent and lethal crime.
