Here is an interesting post on YMB today from: MedDevice formerly MLAB
I hope everyone is doing great on this wonderful Tuesday! As I read our CYDY message board on Yahoo Finance, there are a lot of guesses and predications, which can be fun and entertaining. I am certainly no insider, but since five of the eight start up companies I was with got bought out I feel like I can wager a guess as well. This Thursday's CC, will be about NASH data, an update on the Amarex clean up, the aggregated safety data that comes out of that Amarex clean up, which also leads to an update on an HIV BLA completion/submission. What we won't hear on the call is a Partnership, Buyout or new CEO (Unless it happens that morning). Why? Because as a publicly traded company we have to report those things in a timely manner.
My upcoming expectations:
1) In order for us to do anything we need funding....That is why a partnership with BP is critical and needs to happen relatively soon. Like in the next 2 maybe 3 months. I believe according to poster Jay ,that sometime around September there is a Samsung (our manufacturer of LL) payment due. The strategy of partnering with a Big Pharma company on one or two indications has many benefits but the first one is the big bolus of cash that usually comes with these deals. BP will easily pay $100mil -$350 mil upfront to CYDY, plus the BP gets a big chunk of the profits on the sale of that drug for a particular indication. CYDY will get royalties or the smaller part of the revenue stream. There are numerous ways to construct these agreements. This big bolus payment will allow CYDY to pay off all its debt and have money left over for operations. BP has the infrastructure and funding to support further trials and handle the submissions in a timely manner. This extra money we have to fund operations allows us to pursue other indications until another partner comes along or we expand our agreement with current BP partner.
2) Hopefully, Dr. Recknor submitted a grant request to NIH for Long Covid. We were told that NIH received $1.1 Billlion from the U.S. government to treat Long Covid and that Long Covid is a national priority. If we won a grant award for this we would hear that immediately, but I am confident that CYDY would win an NIH grant if they submitted.
3) A buyout is not out of the question: Posters have pointed to Gilead's buyout of Immunomedics for $21 billion ($88/share) as an example of what could happen to CYDY. As some of you will recall Immunomedics makes Trodelvy. This drug quickly became the new standard for mTNBC. Beyond mTNBC, Trodelvy is also being studied in an ongoing Phase 3 trial in third line HR+/HER2- breast cancer and a registrational Phase 2 study in bladder cancer. Additional ongoing studies are evaluating the potential of Trodelvy as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer and other solid tumor types. Trodelvy is being studied as both a monotherapy and in combination with checkpoint inhibitors and other non-immuno-oncology products by Immunomedics and independent investigators. Additional clinical data for Trodelvy in bladder cancer and other solid tumors will be announced. Trodelvy started to aggregate revenue for Immunomedics, but by no means has the vast indication potential as Leronlimab.
CYDY has leverage in a negotiations with BP. We did finish a successful phase 3 HIV trial with a stat sig P value. but most importantly, our leverage is with at least more than one possible partner. If that is the case CYDY has leverage in a buyout. How do you establish a value for a company that has zero revenue? It's a clear discussion involving market size. We have discussed these market sizes a lot on this board and I won't take the time to go thru them in this post. what matters is our safety data. A BP will definitely put value on our safety data that should now be known to CYDY.
If you look at our latest April 2022 10Q we have issued approximately 715 million shares. If a BP offered us $21 Billion like they did with Immunomedics that translates to roughly $29 per share. Are we worth more? HECK YES WE ARE.... We may have Trodelvy beat already in the mTNBC space (we need an update). I would bet that Leronlimab is safer as well. Plus Leronlimab has more possible indications than just cancer. So BP might not have the evidence yet for what we think we are worth. Therefore, the partnership strategy gives us our best chance at funding more trials and broadening our FDA APPROVED INDICATIONS. In the end, we have to cross the finish line of approvals to bring in the revenue streams to broaden our base of indications.
One caveat for partnerships or a buyout is the DOJ/SEC investigations. Deals can always have contingencies. but my sense is the partnerships wont happen until the investigations are concluded.
I wish us all the very best on our LONG investments into CYDY. It has the best combination of helping mankind and my Grandkids future. LOVE IT!
I hope everyone is doing great on this wonderful Tuesday! As I read our CYDY message board on Yahoo Finance, there are a lot of guesses and predications, which can be fun and entertaining. I am certainly no insider, but since five of the eight start up companies I was with got bought out I feel like I can wager a guess as well. This Thursday's CC, will be about NASH data, an update on the Amarex clean up, the aggregated safety data that comes out of that Amarex clean up, which also leads to an update on an HIV BLA completion/submission. What we won't hear on the call is a Partnership, Buyout or new CEO (Unless it happens that morning). Why? Because as a publicly traded company we have to report those things in a timely manner.
My upcoming expectations:
1) In order for us to do anything we need funding....That is why a partnership with BP is critical and needs to happen relatively soon. Like in the next 2 maybe 3 months. I believe according to poster Jay ,that sometime around September there is a Samsung (our manufacturer of LL) payment due. The strategy of partnering with a Big Pharma company on one or two indications has many benefits but the first one is the big bolus of cash that usually comes with these deals. BP will easily pay $100mil -$350 mil upfront to CYDY, plus the BP gets a big chunk of the profits on the sale of that drug for a particular indication. CYDY will get royalties or the smaller part of the revenue stream. There are numerous ways to construct these agreements. This big bolus payment will allow CYDY to pay off all its debt and have money left over for operations. BP has the infrastructure and funding to support further trials and handle the submissions in a timely manner. This extra money we have to fund operations allows us to pursue other indications until another partner comes along or we expand our agreement with current BP partner.
2) Hopefully, Dr. Recknor submitted a grant request to NIH for Long Covid. We were told that NIH received $1.1 Billlion from the U.S. government to treat Long Covid and that Long Covid is a national priority. If we won a grant award for this we would hear that immediately, but I am confident that CYDY would win an NIH grant if they submitted.
3) A buyout is not out of the question: Posters have pointed to Gilead's buyout of Immunomedics for $21 billion ($88/share) as an example of what could happen to CYDY. As some of you will recall Immunomedics makes Trodelvy. This drug quickly became the new standard for mTNBC. Beyond mTNBC, Trodelvy is also being studied in an ongoing Phase 3 trial in third line HR+/HER2- breast cancer and a registrational Phase 2 study in bladder cancer. Additional ongoing studies are evaluating the potential of Trodelvy as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer and other solid tumor types. Trodelvy is being studied as both a monotherapy and in combination with checkpoint inhibitors and other non-immuno-oncology products by Immunomedics and independent investigators. Additional clinical data for Trodelvy in bladder cancer and other solid tumors will be announced. Trodelvy started to aggregate revenue for Immunomedics, but by no means has the vast indication potential as Leronlimab.
CYDY has leverage in a negotiations with BP. We did finish a successful phase 3 HIV trial with a stat sig P value. but most importantly, our leverage is with at least more than one possible partner. If that is the case CYDY has leverage in a buyout. How do you establish a value for a company that has zero revenue? It's a clear discussion involving market size. We have discussed these market sizes a lot on this board and I won't take the time to go thru them in this post. what matters is our safety data. A BP will definitely put value on our safety data that should now be known to CYDY.
If you look at our latest April 2022 10Q we have issued approximately 715 million shares. If a BP offered us $21 Billion like they did with Immunomedics that translates to roughly $29 per share. Are we worth more? HECK YES WE ARE.... We may have Trodelvy beat already in the mTNBC space (we need an update). I would bet that Leronlimab is safer as well. Plus Leronlimab has more possible indications than just cancer. So BP might not have the evidence yet for what we think we are worth. Therefore, the partnership strategy gives us our best chance at funding more trials and broadening our FDA APPROVED INDICATIONS. In the end, we have to cross the finish line of approvals to bring in the revenue streams to broaden our base of indications.
One caveat for partnerships or a buyout is the DOJ/SEC investigations. Deals can always have contingencies. but my sense is the partnerships wont happen until the investigations are concluded.
I wish us all the very best on our LONG investments into CYDY. It has the best combination of helping mankind and my Grandkids future. LOVE IT!
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