Looking around trying to find a comp. I mentioned
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Posted On: 03/12/2022 9:23:48 PM
Looking around trying to find a comp. I mentioned Zicam sold for over 1/2 billion and it's been knocked off 9 ways to Sunday. What if it wasn't and some kind of magical pill that shortened colds? What would it be worth then? $1B? $2B? More?
Not a fair comparison since the seriousness of Covid adds an exponential value to Tollovid/v. Plus the cost is way different.
Took a look at MannKind Corporation. One product, $62M in revenue. $820M market cap. Basically 13x revenue.
What if Todos was valued at 13x revenue? $10M x 13 = $130M. That would put the sp at $0.13
With $20M of revenue, that would put the sp at $0.26. That's not even factoring the crazy revenue potential of either Tollovid or Tollovir
One government approving Tollovir and purchasing 50,000 courses of treatment at $3K a pop is an instant $150M of revenue
Multiple that by 13 and you get $2B
Looking at how Covid is taken off again especially in Europe I would bet a EUA is right around the corner. Either it is or it's not. Governments can't debate this for 12 months as there is no time to lose.
I watched the video again to make sure I heard this right...
No problem supplying 10's of millions of bottles.
Even at the low end of $100, that is $1B of revenue. If Todos was going to run out, then it goes to Tollovir at $3,000 a pop or whatever the price is.
What is interesting to hear is, there may be a different deal in the works for Europe. Europe to big for TCell or TCell can make enough revenue just from carpet bombing Greece with Tollovid. I'm thinking some other parties are very interested in having a similar deal that TCell did. We'll see.
Remember that deal was for minimum of 500,000 bottles in sales over 18 months. The deal was months before the data was released. I'm thinking Todos can now do a better deal than double digit royalty but even still, the royalty is no extra work for Todos.
Let's say that it's 15% royalty and use a nice round $100/bottle. That is $7.5M for little work. You can start to see why Gerald can forecast revenue doubling this year. It's quite possible that it doesn't double. It duodecuples. But we'll see. I'm thinking minimum revenues of $30M this year. Yeah I know Gerald said $20M, but he's going to be super conservative. So if it's $30M, that is the same as the market cap today. Don't you think something is wrong with that picture?
So why is the stock at $.03? I think it's because people don't know about the company yet. That will change shortly. The share price will shoot up with a number of catalysts coming including the deal announcement, Q4 revenue, etc. When the sp doubles, it's going to get a lot of attention. I think that will happen this month, but we'll see.
This has the potential to be a run away train when people understand the story but we'll see. Do your own DD. Gonna be a fun year. At least for me.
Not a fair comparison since the seriousness of Covid adds an exponential value to Tollovid/v. Plus the cost is way different.
Took a look at MannKind Corporation. One product, $62M in revenue. $820M market cap. Basically 13x revenue.
What if Todos was valued at 13x revenue? $10M x 13 = $130M. That would put the sp at $0.13
With $20M of revenue, that would put the sp at $0.26. That's not even factoring the crazy revenue potential of either Tollovid or Tollovir
One government approving Tollovir and purchasing 50,000 courses of treatment at $3K a pop is an instant $150M of revenue
Multiple that by 13 and you get $2B
Looking at how Covid is taken off again especially in Europe I would bet a EUA is right around the corner. Either it is or it's not. Governments can't debate this for 12 months as there is no time to lose.
I watched the video again to make sure I heard this right...
No problem supplying 10's of millions of bottles.
Even at the low end of $100, that is $1B of revenue. If Todos was going to run out, then it goes to Tollovir at $3,000 a pop or whatever the price is.
What is interesting to hear is, there may be a different deal in the works for Europe. Europe to big for TCell or TCell can make enough revenue just from carpet bombing Greece with Tollovid. I'm thinking some other parties are very interested in having a similar deal that TCell did. We'll see.
Remember that deal was for minimum of 500,000 bottles in sales over 18 months. The deal was months before the data was released. I'm thinking Todos can now do a better deal than double digit royalty but even still, the royalty is no extra work for Todos.
Let's say that it's 15% royalty and use a nice round $100/bottle. That is $7.5M for little work. You can start to see why Gerald can forecast revenue doubling this year. It's quite possible that it doesn't double. It duodecuples. But we'll see. I'm thinking minimum revenues of $30M this year. Yeah I know Gerald said $20M, but he's going to be super conservative. So if it's $30M, that is the same as the market cap today. Don't you think something is wrong with that picture?
So why is the stock at $.03? I think it's because people don't know about the company yet. That will change shortly. The share price will shoot up with a number of catalysts coming including the deal announcement, Q4 revenue, etc. When the sp doubles, it's going to get a lot of attention. I think that will happen this month, but we'll see.
This has the potential to be a run away train when people understand the story but we'll see. Do your own DD. Gonna be a fun year. At least for me.
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