My take on Amarex stipulation re bond. The joint s
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Posted On: 01/15/2022 1:23:48 PM
My take on Amarex stipulation re bond. The joint stipulation extends the bond posting date to Feb 4, with an option to further extend it to Feb 14, and also dismisses NSF without prejudice. Several board members have already posted their assessments re the meaning and/or consequences of the stip, and I agree with most of what I have read. For instance, dismissing NSF is inconsequential. This lawsuit is about compelling the transfer of clinical trial data and an accounting of Amarex's billed services. If the accounting generates a tort claim, NSF will be an additional defendant and it will be facing potential joint liability if it either assumed Amarex's liabilities at acquisition or it controlled Amarex's working relationship with CYDY.
However, what I find most interesting about the stip is why CYDY sought a 20 (and potentially 30) day delay on posting the $6.5M bond (which also delays by the same number of days the data transfer and the accounting). CYDY will have to either buy the bond or post the cash. Either way, shares will presumably have to be sold by management at a discount to the current sp. Why then does management expect the sp to increase significantly in less than 20 days?
(By the way, I find it hard to believe that the sudden CC cancellation was driven by the looming joint stipulation. The Amarex lawsuit was not even referenced in the original PR announcing the CC and it would have been easy to have deflected any shareholder question involving it.) So what would likely move the sp significantly within 14 to 20, or perhaps 25 days? Well, great results on Nash 700 mg and/or confirmation that most of the cancer patients are still alive (with resubmittal of BTD request) would definitely help the sp short term, but how much and for how long would be hard to say
I can only envision 2 things that would move the sp by dollars, instead of dimes: a Nash partnership deal or a credible BO proposal. Of these 2, the former obviously seems a far more likely possibility than the latter.
But just to take all of this unsupported speculation on my part to its outer limits, allow me to reference Weasel's post from yesterday in which he opined that the most likely eventual BO suitor for CYDY would be Samsung. I agree with his analysis. As he stated: Samsung's parent holding company announced last summer that it would make several billion dollars available to underwrite Samsung's entry into the US Pharma market; and Samsung has previously demonstrated great confidence in Leronlimab as a potential platform drug by carving out precious manufacturing capacity for poor little CYDY. Add to this, that Samsung has no shareholders to complain (or revolt) about a 2 digit billion dollar offer to buy a struggling OTC biopharma and LL would not cannibalize Samsung's existing drugs because it has none. Finally, if Samsung truly believes in the efficacy of LL in anything close to the way ohm does and has any intention to acquire CYDY, now would be the time make its move -- before CYDY enters into a Nash partnership that would create an unwelcome loose end.
To be abundantly clear: I have no inside info; I have had no communications of any kind with CYDY management/staff; and all of the above is sheer conjecture on my part. It's very hard to solve a puzzle when you don't have most of the pieces, but it's something to do on a long weekend before the NFL playoff games start. Have a great weekend.
However, what I find most interesting about the stip is why CYDY sought a 20 (and potentially 30) day delay on posting the $6.5M bond (which also delays by the same number of days the data transfer and the accounting). CYDY will have to either buy the bond or post the cash. Either way, shares will presumably have to be sold by management at a discount to the current sp. Why then does management expect the sp to increase significantly in less than 20 days?
(By the way, I find it hard to believe that the sudden CC cancellation was driven by the looming joint stipulation. The Amarex lawsuit was not even referenced in the original PR announcing the CC and it would have been easy to have deflected any shareholder question involving it.) So what would likely move the sp significantly within 14 to 20, or perhaps 25 days? Well, great results on Nash 700 mg and/or confirmation that most of the cancer patients are still alive (with resubmittal of BTD request) would definitely help the sp short term, but how much and for how long would be hard to say
I can only envision 2 things that would move the sp by dollars, instead of dimes: a Nash partnership deal or a credible BO proposal. Of these 2, the former obviously seems a far more likely possibility than the latter.
But just to take all of this unsupported speculation on my part to its outer limits, allow me to reference Weasel's post from yesterday in which he opined that the most likely eventual BO suitor for CYDY would be Samsung. I agree with his analysis. As he stated: Samsung's parent holding company announced last summer that it would make several billion dollars available to underwrite Samsung's entry into the US Pharma market; and Samsung has previously demonstrated great confidence in Leronlimab as a potential platform drug by carving out precious manufacturing capacity for poor little CYDY. Add to this, that Samsung has no shareholders to complain (or revolt) about a 2 digit billion dollar offer to buy a struggling OTC biopharma and LL would not cannibalize Samsung's existing drugs because it has none. Finally, if Samsung truly believes in the efficacy of LL in anything close to the way ohm does and has any intention to acquire CYDY, now would be the time make its move -- before CYDY enters into a Nash partnership that would create an unwelcome loose end.
To be abundantly clear: I have no inside info; I have had no communications of any kind with CYDY management/staff; and all of the above is sheer conjecture on my part. It's very hard to solve a puzzle when you don't have most of the pieces, but it's something to do on a long weekend before the NFL playoff games start. Have a great weekend.
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