nothing good is priced in - in fact, i think a lot
Post# of 153897
(Total Views: 606)
Posted On: 01/05/2022 7:31:44 PM
nothing good is priced in - in fact, i think a lot of bad potential outcomes are "priced in".
i thought about this some today. right now our total market cap (company value) is $574MM. most biotechs trade for a multiple of revenue in the 6X range. So right now, the market is giving us credit for doing about $100MM in total revenue. Put another way, this company is being valued as if it will not produce meaningful revenue in the intermediate term or even longer term, as valuations are discounted back from the future to current day.
But $100MM in revenue doesn't make sense. So the real question is, is the company now being valued on the salvage value of the molecule - ie. that it won't survive as a going concern, but rather will be sold based on whatever someone will pay for Leronlimab.
Don't shoot the messenger here. I'm just trying to make sense of a total market cap of $574MM for a company with potential markets in the $10 Billion + range. It makes no sense - unless you bake in the assumption that some people are making that we'll never see those revenues.
I remain long, and have been adding here. I'm just trying to figure out what on earth is going on here, and why this thing has gotten pounded into the earth week after week, month after month. Management needs to help out the long-suffering shareholders and get themselves (and us) some sort of lifeline. They may believe they have a miracle drug (and many of us also believe that) but they also need to realize that we're in a world of #$%^ right now with regard to this investment.
i thought about this some today. right now our total market cap (company value) is $574MM. most biotechs trade for a multiple of revenue in the 6X range. So right now, the market is giving us credit for doing about $100MM in total revenue. Put another way, this company is being valued as if it will not produce meaningful revenue in the intermediate term or even longer term, as valuations are discounted back from the future to current day.
But $100MM in revenue doesn't make sense. So the real question is, is the company now being valued on the salvage value of the molecule - ie. that it won't survive as a going concern, but rather will be sold based on whatever someone will pay for Leronlimab.
Don't shoot the messenger here. I'm just trying to make sense of a total market cap of $574MM for a company with potential markets in the $10 Billion + range. It makes no sense - unless you bake in the assumption that some people are making that we'll never see those revenues.
I remain long, and have been adding here. I'm just trying to figure out what on earth is going on here, and why this thing has gotten pounded into the earth week after week, month after month. Management needs to help out the long-suffering shareholders and get themselves (and us) some sort of lifeline. They may believe they have a miracle drug (and many of us also believe that) but they also need to realize that we're in a world of #$%^ right now with regard to this investment.
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