Post I made in response to a WAG somebody made regarding value of deal for Brilacidin or IPIX. I didn't get into any numbers as I wanted to simply stress why the value should be way up there, beyond anything seen w/ startups in the past:
Some may say that your estimate for a deal sounds way too lucrative for IPIX based on past deals for bio startups but I fall in line more with you for the following reasons:
1. BP will have bypassed ALL RISK for the drug in both its safety profile and its efficacy shown by all trials to date.
2. BP has RBL investigational support that B should be able to handle not just Covid but ALL corona viruses to include Flu, HIV, Herpes, and more. These revenue streams are huge. It has also shown B should work not just on enveloped viruses but also non-enveloped viruses. This includes those viruses normally affecting young children. Again, more large revenue streams.
3. RBL testing has also shown that B should be a leading candidate to the DOD as a primary defense against all biological and viral attacks on American forces. This is supported in that to date B has not seen a bacteria or virus it cannot kill. 3 RBLs have been testing B now for over a year and the success is shown in that B was to be a topic presented at the major DOD Biological Defense meeting in Orlando in June that had to be cancelled due to Covid. It should be noted that all 3 RBLs plan on issuing peer review papers on their findings - major success right there.
4. Being anti-inflammatory, major lung related revenue streams become a strong possibility (COPD, Asthma, Bronchitis) and also for MANY more issues such as encephalitis.
5. B has shown a propensity to cure most all ailments in the GI tract and this will be confirmed soon when the UC trial results are achieved. Again, very large revenue streams being attacked by B.
6. B has been said to have many more areas it should be able to target that have as yet to be found but are strong areas for positive expectations (Example: "leaky gut is expected to be handled by B and leaky gut has now been linked to 'leaky brain' which should also be a promising target and in here we are talking about Parkinson's Disease, Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS), Alzheimer's, and dementia). Another major area are all auto-immune problems, kidney, and liver problems.
7. To date B has shown an excellent ability to transfer in vitro results into in vivo results so all the above areas mentioned above are not just pipe dreams but very realistic areas that B should prove a leading factor in solving for medicine.
8. The above are just for the revenues based on the "small molecule" targets for Brilacidin. The "polymer" revenue possibilities (polymer being many small molecules linked together to form strings of
in industrial products to include paints, textiles, plastics, etc. is astounding and I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to where these numbers could lead but it is large.
Now add all the above revenue streams and you are talking hundreds of billions a year. So if the total is $200B/yr and B only gets 5% of the market (which IMO is ridiculously low) that is $10B/yr and the upside could be $50B+/yr.
Remember, we are not talking just a drug but a new arm of medicine and that is what separates the abilities of B to all other drugs.
The numbers above are simply for B. I have not even addressed the potential of Kevetrin and it could be a monster stand alone and/or complementary drug for cancer treatments. It has revenue potential way, way up in the tens of billions, or more.
So add up the possibilities, the lack of risk, the already successful findings for Covid (once successful top line results are released this week or next), and the safety of the drug and what you project is a seemingly paltry amount IMO.
I feel whoever gets the Brilacidin platform is not just buying a drug but is attaining the library of a big pharma in the multitude of major revenue streams it will be able to target.
Some may say that your estimate for a deal sounds way too lucrative for IPIX based on past deals for bio startups but I fall in line more with you for the following reasons:
1. BP will have bypassed ALL RISK for the drug in both its safety profile and its efficacy shown by all trials to date.
2. BP has RBL investigational support that B should be able to handle not just Covid but ALL corona viruses to include Flu, HIV, Herpes, and more. These revenue streams are huge. It has also shown B should work not just on enveloped viruses but also non-enveloped viruses. This includes those viruses normally affecting young children. Again, more large revenue streams.
3. RBL testing has also shown that B should be a leading candidate to the DOD as a primary defense against all biological and viral attacks on American forces. This is supported in that to date B has not seen a bacteria or virus it cannot kill. 3 RBLs have been testing B now for over a year and the success is shown in that B was to be a topic presented at the major DOD Biological Defense meeting in Orlando in June that had to be cancelled due to Covid. It should be noted that all 3 RBLs plan on issuing peer review papers on their findings - major success right there.
4. Being anti-inflammatory, major lung related revenue streams become a strong possibility (COPD, Asthma, Bronchitis) and also for MANY more issues such as encephalitis.
5. B has shown a propensity to cure most all ailments in the GI tract and this will be confirmed soon when the UC trial results are achieved. Again, very large revenue streams being attacked by B.
6. B has been said to have many more areas it should be able to target that have as yet to be found but are strong areas for positive expectations (Example: "leaky gut is expected to be handled by B and leaky gut has now been linked to 'leaky brain' which should also be a promising target and in here we are talking about Parkinson's Disease, Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS), Alzheimer's, and dementia). Another major area are all auto-immune problems, kidney, and liver problems.
7. To date B has shown an excellent ability to transfer in vitro results into in vivo results so all the above areas mentioned above are not just pipe dreams but very realistic areas that B should prove a leading factor in solving for medicine.
8. The above are just for the revenues based on the "small molecule" targets for Brilacidin. The "polymer" revenue possibilities (polymer being many small molecules linked together to form strings of
in industrial products to include paints, textiles, plastics, etc. is astounding and I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to where these numbers could lead but it is large. Now add all the above revenue streams and you are talking hundreds of billions a year. So if the total is $200B/yr and B only gets 5% of the market (which IMO is ridiculously low) that is $10B/yr and the upside could be $50B+/yr.
Remember, we are not talking just a drug but a new arm of medicine and that is what separates the abilities of B to all other drugs.
The numbers above are simply for B. I have not even addressed the potential of Kevetrin and it could be a monster stand alone and/or complementary drug for cancer treatments. It has revenue potential way, way up in the tens of billions, or more.
So add up the possibilities, the lack of risk, the already successful findings for Covid (once successful top line results are released this week or next), and the safety of the drug and what you project is a seemingly paltry amount IMO.
I feel whoever gets the Brilacidin platform is not just buying a drug but is attaining the library of a big pharma in the multitude of major revenue streams it will be able to target.
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