Where People Are Most Vulnerable to the Delta Variant
By Charlie SmartJuly 29, 2021
The patchwork nature of the coronavirus vaccination campaign in the United States has left people in many parts of the country still vulnerable to the virus and the fast-spreading Delta variant.
Even areas with high vaccine uptake or those that were hit hard in previous waves of the pandemic could see new outbreaks if vaccination rates do not increase, an analysis conducted for The New York Times shows.
Estimates developed by PHICOR, a public health research group, suggest that more than 40 percent of U.S. residents may not be sufficiently protected against the Delta variant.
Share of people vulnerable to infection with the Delta variant. Gray areas...insufficient data.
Some of the least-protected areas, like counties in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, are currently facing large outbreaks. In Taney County, Mo., where only 28 percent of residents are fully vaccinated, the average number of daily reported cases is higher than ever, and hospitals in the area are seeing a surge of Covid-19 patients.
In other areas of the country, vaccination rates are as high as 70 to 80 percent. But researchers say it is likely that few if any counties have reached herd immunity — or the point at which enough people are immune that the virus is unlikely to spread within the community. Because the Delta variant is more contagious, that threshold is higher than before.
That means much of the country is still susceptible to the kind of rapid spread that can put stress on hospitals and lead to worse outcomes for patients. The best protection for every community, experts say, is to continue to vaccinate as many people as possible.
“Small increases in vaccination coverage can make a significant difference in terms of cutting down the number of cases” overall, said Bruce Y. Lee, a professor at the City University of New York who leads the PHICOR research effort. “If you get higher in terms of immunity, it can slow down the virus.”
There are some positive signs: A majority of adults over 65 have been vaccinated in most counties, offering strong protection against the worst outcomes for one of the most at-risk groups. And despite the recent rise in cases, the number of new Covid deaths has remained low.
But the pace of vaccination has slowed by more than 80 percent since its peak in April, and more than half of people in the United States live in counties where most people remain unvaccinated.
Although breakthrough infections are rare, experts say vaccinated people living around large unvaccinated populations may be more susceptible to these infections because they are more likely to encounter the virus in the event of an outbreak.
“Every time you go out, there’s a chance that you might encounter someone who is not vaccinated and possibly infected with the virus,” Dr. Meyers said. “The more people who are vaccinated, the less likely that becomes.”
The disparate levels of defense across the country pose a further challenge to controlling the pandemic. “If you have the virus still locally circulating in certain areas, it raises the probability of another variant emerging,” Dr. Lee said.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/2...e9f650852d
By Charlie SmartJuly 29, 2021
The patchwork nature of the coronavirus vaccination campaign in the United States has left people in many parts of the country still vulnerable to the virus and the fast-spreading Delta variant.
Even areas with high vaccine uptake or those that were hit hard in previous waves of the pandemic could see new outbreaks if vaccination rates do not increase, an analysis conducted for The New York Times shows.
Estimates developed by PHICOR, a public health research group, suggest that more than 40 percent of U.S. residents may not be sufficiently protected against the Delta variant.
Share of people vulnerable to infection with the Delta variant. Gray areas...insufficient data.
Some of the least-protected areas, like counties in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, are currently facing large outbreaks. In Taney County, Mo., where only 28 percent of residents are fully vaccinated, the average number of daily reported cases is higher than ever, and hospitals in the area are seeing a surge of Covid-19 patients.
In other areas of the country, vaccination rates are as high as 70 to 80 percent. But researchers say it is likely that few if any counties have reached herd immunity — or the point at which enough people are immune that the virus is unlikely to spread within the community. Because the Delta variant is more contagious, that threshold is higher than before.
That means much of the country is still susceptible to the kind of rapid spread that can put stress on hospitals and lead to worse outcomes for patients. The best protection for every community, experts say, is to continue to vaccinate as many people as possible.
“Small increases in vaccination coverage can make a significant difference in terms of cutting down the number of cases” overall, said Bruce Y. Lee, a professor at the City University of New York who leads the PHICOR research effort. “If you get higher in terms of immunity, it can slow down the virus.”
There are some positive signs: A majority of adults over 65 have been vaccinated in most counties, offering strong protection against the worst outcomes for one of the most at-risk groups. And despite the recent rise in cases, the number of new Covid deaths has remained low.
But the pace of vaccination has slowed by more than 80 percent since its peak in April, and more than half of people in the United States live in counties where most people remain unvaccinated.
Although breakthrough infections are rare, experts say vaccinated people living around large unvaccinated populations may be more susceptible to these infections because they are more likely to encounter the virus in the event of an outbreak.
“Every time you go out, there’s a chance that you might encounter someone who is not vaccinated and possibly infected with the virus,” Dr. Meyers said. “The more people who are vaccinated, the less likely that becomes.”
The disparate levels of defense across the country pose a further challenge to controlling the pandemic. “If you have the virus still locally circulating in certain areas, it raises the probability of another variant emerging,” Dr. Lee said.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/2...e9f650852d
