VERB Valuation (sorry, long post)
Been doing a lot of thinking over my bagel this morning. There has long been talk about Verb's worth. With every conversation I have been in regarding Verb's valuation throughout the years, usually the term "billion" gets added into it somewhere by someone. In the past, in my opinion, a billion dollar valuation was wild speculation and not a reality. In my personal opinion, it is no longer a fantasy and should be taken seriously into consideration. Why? Let's examine:
Current status:
- O/S = 63,233,282 shares (Fully diluted = 92,919,122 shares)
- Friday's closing price = $1.33
- Market cap = $84mil give or take a few
- Last 4 Quarters of revenue = $10,137,000
- Revenue multiplier (market cap/annual revenue) = 8.3x
- PPS at a $1bil market cap = $15.80
To me, our current price is fairly reasonable....if you are only looking at past revenues, past growth, and take almost nothing of what is coming to market into consideration. In other words, the market is pricing Verb for its past and adds very little value for a slew of new products coming down the pike……IMMINENTLY! Redspeed has posted many times about how other livestream companies like Bamuser are being valued much higher with very little revenue. So either we are way undervalued and not having potential factored in, or Bamuser is way overvalued, or both....and that is only livestream, we have other products.
Ok, so let's examine what is coming near term that would help us achieve this billion dollar market cap if the market isn't taking it into account:
1. verbMAIL: Verb is about to release in the very near term (we are told this month) an add on to the Microsoft Outlook product. We have seen three folks on this board, at least one of which is an expert in software products and one of which is a tech neophyte, tell us this is a wonderful product, easy to use, and can't wait for it to launch. I like that their experience runs the gamut as it tells me it is easy to use for folks that aren't tech savy, but also doesn't bore nor is it too simplistic for tech guru's. Yes, they may be biased as they are Verb shareholders, but two of them I know very well and I believe them to be on the very low end of the "pumpy" scale. The product will work in conjunction with Outlook which has a billion (there's that term again) users. I believe there will most likely be a free version of verbMAIL, so it has the chance of being adopted very quickly. I would suspect there will be different tiers so a free version and obviously at least one version you have to pay for. Totally guessing, but I suspect the paid version may add in things like analytics or further customize-ability, and would most likely be more appealing to business users. The cost, I am assuming, will be relatively cheap so would expect it not to be prohibitive to people making a quick decision to pay for it and use it. In all, this has the chance of mushroom clouding very quickly. And that is if Microsoft doesn't even say a single word about it. God help us if Microsoft gives it their blessing. Given the sheer volume of Outlook users around the globe, verbMAIL alone has the ability to quickly appreciate Verb's market cap towards a billion dollars, but we all know verbMAIL is not the only product in it's arsenal or to be released in the near term. Oh, and there has also been talk of verbMAIL being added into Gmail. We shall see.
2. verbLIVE: verbLIVE to date is being sold as an enterprise version to existing customers and corporations. Small timers can currently get access to verbLIVE through verbTeams. There has also been alot of talk about a standalone app being released for verbLIVE. We have all seen Rory's discussion about how livestream blew up in China and how it is starting to trend up here. Also see Redspeed's recent posts about it with articles galore. Livestream will mushroom cloud, and Verb has a product already in the market. Large players like Amazon and others are already introducing their own version, which in my mind only strengthens our product as more people become aware.
3. Verb Attribution: If ever there was a product combination tailor made for the direct sales market, verbLIVE and Attribution is it. Being able to send contacts to different livestream events, and share revenues in those referrals, is what it is all about. This is the product combination that screams the word "exponential". And, it is not just for direct sales.
4. Verb Marketplace: I won't get into this too deeply, as we don't know alot about it, but I do know some. Giving people a platform to air their wares where the technology affords those vendors the proven ability to increase the likelihood of capturing revenue, all while helping to bring in eyeballs and viewership, and displaying their inventory 24/7....seems pretty darn attractive to me. Not only for small vendors, but large corporations as well. We don't know when Verb Marketplace will be released, but wouldn't be surprised if it is reasonably close to completion as well. All my opinion.
5. verbTEAMS: verbTEAMS is already released and any one of us can go purchase it now. I actually have. Acquiring SoloFire, and combining their product with our verbLIVE is perfect. SoloFire brought with them a bunch of huge customers who, by the way, are now Verb customers and wouldn't be surprised if they are upsold other Verb products. It is the only way any small timer can currently access and use verbLIVE, and that alone is worth the price of admission. And it is relatively cheap. I think I paid less than $100 for the year.
I will leave out verbCRM (where most of our current revenues are derived from) and verbLEARN for now, but don't forget about them. Rory has also mentioned several times that there are more projects being worked on that he will talk about later in the year.
Given the above product line roll out, and given the amount of potential the above product line has on many many many different facets, I would dare to venture that it is no longer wild speculation that a $1bil valuation is in the realm of possibility. If our market cap is valued solely on revenues, and assuming we are valued at the 8.3x revenue multiplier that we currently have, that would mean our revenues would have to be around $120mil to get the $1bil valuation.
I believe we will get there at some point. But as Verb progresses, as their products roll out, if they are deemed worthwhile products, as they demonstrate the ability to grow revenue at a much greater rate than historical rates, and as their name becomes more commonplace, the market will start to add in some level of speculation or potential to Verb’s valuation which Verb is not currently getting. Perhaps we go from a revenue multiples rate of 8.3 to 10, 15, 20? We obviously have along way to go to get there, and perhaps I am over-speculating on each product's ability to bring in revenue, but I certainly don't think so.
Been doing a lot of thinking over my bagel this morning. There has long been talk about Verb's worth. With every conversation I have been in regarding Verb's valuation throughout the years, usually the term "billion" gets added into it somewhere by someone. In the past, in my opinion, a billion dollar valuation was wild speculation and not a reality. In my personal opinion, it is no longer a fantasy and should be taken seriously into consideration. Why? Let's examine:
Current status:
- O/S = 63,233,282 shares (Fully diluted = 92,919,122 shares)
- Friday's closing price = $1.33
- Market cap = $84mil give or take a few
- Last 4 Quarters of revenue = $10,137,000
- Revenue multiplier (market cap/annual revenue) = 8.3x
- PPS at a $1bil market cap = $15.80
To me, our current price is fairly reasonable....if you are only looking at past revenues, past growth, and take almost nothing of what is coming to market into consideration. In other words, the market is pricing Verb for its past and adds very little value for a slew of new products coming down the pike……IMMINENTLY! Redspeed has posted many times about how other livestream companies like Bamuser are being valued much higher with very little revenue. So either we are way undervalued and not having potential factored in, or Bamuser is way overvalued, or both....and that is only livestream, we have other products.
Ok, so let's examine what is coming near term that would help us achieve this billion dollar market cap if the market isn't taking it into account:
1. verbMAIL: Verb is about to release in the very near term (we are told this month) an add on to the Microsoft Outlook product. We have seen three folks on this board, at least one of which is an expert in software products and one of which is a tech neophyte, tell us this is a wonderful product, easy to use, and can't wait for it to launch. I like that their experience runs the gamut as it tells me it is easy to use for folks that aren't tech savy, but also doesn't bore nor is it too simplistic for tech guru's. Yes, they may be biased as they are Verb shareholders, but two of them I know very well and I believe them to be on the very low end of the "pumpy" scale. The product will work in conjunction with Outlook which has a billion (there's that term again) users. I believe there will most likely be a free version of verbMAIL, so it has the chance of being adopted very quickly. I would suspect there will be different tiers so a free version and obviously at least one version you have to pay for. Totally guessing, but I suspect the paid version may add in things like analytics or further customize-ability, and would most likely be more appealing to business users. The cost, I am assuming, will be relatively cheap so would expect it not to be prohibitive to people making a quick decision to pay for it and use it. In all, this has the chance of mushroom clouding very quickly. And that is if Microsoft doesn't even say a single word about it. God help us if Microsoft gives it their blessing. Given the sheer volume of Outlook users around the globe, verbMAIL alone has the ability to quickly appreciate Verb's market cap towards a billion dollars, but we all know verbMAIL is not the only product in it's arsenal or to be released in the near term. Oh, and there has also been talk of verbMAIL being added into Gmail. We shall see.
2. verbLIVE: verbLIVE to date is being sold as an enterprise version to existing customers and corporations. Small timers can currently get access to verbLIVE through verbTeams. There has also been alot of talk about a standalone app being released for verbLIVE. We have all seen Rory's discussion about how livestream blew up in China and how it is starting to trend up here. Also see Redspeed's recent posts about it with articles galore. Livestream will mushroom cloud, and Verb has a product already in the market. Large players like Amazon and others are already introducing their own version, which in my mind only strengthens our product as more people become aware.
3. Verb Attribution: If ever there was a product combination tailor made for the direct sales market, verbLIVE and Attribution is it. Being able to send contacts to different livestream events, and share revenues in those referrals, is what it is all about. This is the product combination that screams the word "exponential". And, it is not just for direct sales.
4. Verb Marketplace: I won't get into this too deeply, as we don't know alot about it, but I do know some. Giving people a platform to air their wares where the technology affords those vendors the proven ability to increase the likelihood of capturing revenue, all while helping to bring in eyeballs and viewership, and displaying their inventory 24/7....seems pretty darn attractive to me. Not only for small vendors, but large corporations as well. We don't know when Verb Marketplace will be released, but wouldn't be surprised if it is reasonably close to completion as well. All my opinion.
5. verbTEAMS: verbTEAMS is already released and any one of us can go purchase it now. I actually have. Acquiring SoloFire, and combining their product with our verbLIVE is perfect. SoloFire brought with them a bunch of huge customers who, by the way, are now Verb customers and wouldn't be surprised if they are upsold other Verb products. It is the only way any small timer can currently access and use verbLIVE, and that alone is worth the price of admission. And it is relatively cheap. I think I paid less than $100 for the year.
I will leave out verbCRM (where most of our current revenues are derived from) and verbLEARN for now, but don't forget about them. Rory has also mentioned several times that there are more projects being worked on that he will talk about later in the year.
Given the above product line roll out, and given the amount of potential the above product line has on many many many different facets, I would dare to venture that it is no longer wild speculation that a $1bil valuation is in the realm of possibility. If our market cap is valued solely on revenues, and assuming we are valued at the 8.3x revenue multiplier that we currently have, that would mean our revenues would have to be around $120mil to get the $1bil valuation.
I believe we will get there at some point. But as Verb progresses, as their products roll out, if they are deemed worthwhile products, as they demonstrate the ability to grow revenue at a much greater rate than historical rates, and as their name becomes more commonplace, the market will start to add in some level of speculation or potential to Verb’s valuation which Verb is not currently getting. Perhaps we go from a revenue multiples rate of 8.3 to 10, 15, 20? We obviously have along way to go to get there, and perhaps I am over-speculating on each product's ability to bring in revenue, but I certainly don't think so.
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