The wheels kind of fell off at work exactly as I w
Post# of 36536
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Posted On: 05/10/2021 4:26:51 PM
The wheels kind of fell off at work exactly as I was trying to talk to Joe on the call. So I haven't really posted anything substantial about the call as I spent time righting the ship.
A few people have PMd me to see what my thoughts were. Feel free to move on if that's not anything you care to read ; )
Otherwise, it seems as though the group did a great job (as usual) of posting the facts from the call. So I'll try to stick to any analysis I might have had, and I may think of it from the perspective of "Why do I continue to hold?", as I suggested to another poster.
_______________________________
Before the call, I posted a few times that I really needed Joe to not go 0-for-3 on hard information on the big items I (and most of you) think are critical right now, or I might further reduce my holdings:
1) Vaccine IND submission - As far as concrete progress, I don't feel we got much here. It was interesting to hear the clinical supply date of 5/18, and I look forward to hearing about those details when the time comes. 6-8 weeks of sterility/CMC after that, with ~1 month Ph I trials "this summer". All good to know, but no IND submission. So, despite much background progress on various vaccine items, I consider this a "pop fly" on the IND submission.
2) NGIO IPO info (dates, shares, IPO price) - We were referred to DJ for details and received little else as far as IPO info. I consider this a "strikeout" on IPO info.
3) Revenues - No revenues yet.
But Excellagen moving forward with the VA is a good step. I'm sure Joe thought the financing for this would be signed by the call, but it wasn't so. Despite that, I feel positive about the prospects of quickly unleashing this blockbuster. And I fully expect to hear of the financing deal being signed this week or next. As I stated on an earlier post, I believe some decent rates could be achieved with some non-dilutive (that's for you, Zoli!) financing, due to the high rate of cash flow that Excellagen will generate (70% EBITDA!).
On top of the VA, Excellagen appears poised to work itself into managed care systems/insurance. I'm guessing it could take the rest of this year to really work thru all the regulatory hoops, contracts, etc. on this one, but I'm no expert. It appears that would be the earliest any substantial sales could occur on this front anyway (90-120 days production, 60-90 fill). And most/all of the existing stock will be filled/packaged for the VA (and Malaysia?).
The Malaysia deal could possibly come from existing stock (?) after it is packaged. So maybe if they clear regulatory hurdles quickly, there can be some cash flow there before the non-VA US efforts.
If we see the financing deal, we will have significant revs from Excellagen this year, IMHO.
The other Rev angle was the RPM/SaaS and related programs in AZ and FL. I have to admit that I have been extremely disappointed that the Thanksgiving revenue start didn't happen here. But it seems as though they really worked this angle (with no budget) and are ready to start this up on several fronts.
SunJay seems like a fantastic resource here, and his experience with Mr Patel seems invaluable. I feel confident that he can make a real player out of NuGen Health with the signing of the FL group on top of AZ (I'm gonna call this FLAZ for now, until we add other locations). There is a lot of potential growth here, and I expect to see more clinic signings over the next 4-6 weeks.
So I am going to call the Revenue angle an "infield single", where we managed to outhustle the throw to first. And I'll say we went maybe 2/3-for-3 on my critical items. That's only batting .222. So our all-star lineup is only hitting like a catcher in the majors.
But it wasn't an 0-fer, and that is what I was afraid we would get. So I am satisfied enough to let this ride for a few more months I'm holding about 87% of my max share count right now. If I see further measurable and substantial progress or signs of interest from the outside world, I will re-up for the shares I have sold... and possibly go even further.
_____________________________________
Other items that interested me, in no particular order:
1) Mixing up the leadership with Dr Craig Eagle tapped to take over as COB for NGIO is a great move. A real industry name at the helm. I fully expect the leadership positions to evolve as progress is made and our companies leave dormancy and start to become functioning businesses instead of being in startup mode.
2) I thought Rich and particularly Jason Terrell did a bang-up job with their input on the call. Jason's comment on not really being late to market because the process has "given time to expose the weaknesses and solve them" was priceless. I believe Joe should offload more of future presentations to his extremely capable team and stick to the high-level management items. Rich and Jason's input was a major plus for this call and for GNBT/NGIO.
3) I appreciated Tony D's emphasis on the value of Excellagen's IDIQ (Indefinite Date, Indefinite Quantity) approval from the VA. The VA really wants this for their VIP patients (which is ALL of them), and the authorization of this IDIQ shows that.
4) I'll be looking forward to how quickly they can pull other devices/products out of mothballs and work them into the AZ setup, create an MSO, etc.
5) NGIO IPO has to happen soon. The debt that has been accrued and the dilution that has occurred needs to stop, and this is the item that will put a plug on these issues until we can garner true revenue streams from Excellagen, FL/AZ, and/or the vaccine. June?
6) Gary is The Man, and AltuCell is hanging with us. This is great news. The opportunities with this technology in not only diabetes and La Rhonne's that are currently in the works, but also with the cancer and vaccine potential are amazing.
7) In addition to #6 above, I believe Joe has really held this together with tape, glue, and rubber bands made from his vision and hard work. Not everything has gone well, and there have been some major mistakes. But the Team that Joe has assembled and held together (Dr EvH, Jason, Tony, Rich, etc.) as well as the pieces he has added to the team (Dr Eagle, the SAB, Gary, etc.) are sticking with him despite the hurdles and stumbles. There is definitely something here that has led all of these great scientists to stick with GNBT/NGIO, and that is one of the most compelling reasons I am still here. To this point, go back and listen to Gary brag about the Team at the end of his piece of the call. Truly significant.
Regentys close to securing funding. I doubt this will be as favorable as the Excellagen funding, due to its status in the development stage. But this is a truly remarkable opportunity as well, and I look forward to seeing it advance as well.
Outta time. I hope you are all doing well and ready to wait patiently for a bit longer as we see good things bubbling to the surface!
A few people have PMd me to see what my thoughts were. Feel free to move on if that's not anything you care to read ; )
Otherwise, it seems as though the group did a great job (as usual) of posting the facts from the call. So I'll try to stick to any analysis I might have had, and I may think of it from the perspective of "Why do I continue to hold?", as I suggested to another poster.
_______________________________
Before the call, I posted a few times that I really needed Joe to not go 0-for-3 on hard information on the big items I (and most of you) think are critical right now, or I might further reduce my holdings:
1) Vaccine IND submission - As far as concrete progress, I don't feel we got much here. It was interesting to hear the clinical supply date of 5/18, and I look forward to hearing about those details when the time comes. 6-8 weeks of sterility/CMC after that, with ~1 month Ph I trials "this summer". All good to know, but no IND submission. So, despite much background progress on various vaccine items, I consider this a "pop fly" on the IND submission.
2) NGIO IPO info (dates, shares, IPO price) - We were referred to DJ for details and received little else as far as IPO info. I consider this a "strikeout" on IPO info.
3) Revenues - No revenues yet.
But Excellagen moving forward with the VA is a good step. I'm sure Joe thought the financing for this would be signed by the call, but it wasn't so. Despite that, I feel positive about the prospects of quickly unleashing this blockbuster. And I fully expect to hear of the financing deal being signed this week or next. As I stated on an earlier post, I believe some decent rates could be achieved with some non-dilutive (that's for you, Zoli!) financing, due to the high rate of cash flow that Excellagen will generate (70% EBITDA!).
On top of the VA, Excellagen appears poised to work itself into managed care systems/insurance. I'm guessing it could take the rest of this year to really work thru all the regulatory hoops, contracts, etc. on this one, but I'm no expert. It appears that would be the earliest any substantial sales could occur on this front anyway (90-120 days production, 60-90 fill). And most/all of the existing stock will be filled/packaged for the VA (and Malaysia?).
The Malaysia deal could possibly come from existing stock (?) after it is packaged. So maybe if they clear regulatory hurdles quickly, there can be some cash flow there before the non-VA US efforts.
If we see the financing deal, we will have significant revs from Excellagen this year, IMHO.
The other Rev angle was the RPM/SaaS and related programs in AZ and FL. I have to admit that I have been extremely disappointed that the Thanksgiving revenue start didn't happen here. But it seems as though they really worked this angle (with no budget) and are ready to start this up on several fronts.
SunJay seems like a fantastic resource here, and his experience with Mr Patel seems invaluable. I feel confident that he can make a real player out of NuGen Health with the signing of the FL group on top of AZ (I'm gonna call this FLAZ for now, until we add other locations). There is a lot of potential growth here, and I expect to see more clinic signings over the next 4-6 weeks.
So I am going to call the Revenue angle an "infield single", where we managed to outhustle the throw to first. And I'll say we went maybe 2/3-for-3 on my critical items. That's only batting .222. So our all-star lineup is only hitting like a catcher in the majors.
But it wasn't an 0-fer, and that is what I was afraid we would get. So I am satisfied enough to let this ride for a few more months I'm holding about 87% of my max share count right now. If I see further measurable and substantial progress or signs of interest from the outside world, I will re-up for the shares I have sold... and possibly go even further.
_____________________________________
Other items that interested me, in no particular order:
1) Mixing up the leadership with Dr Craig Eagle tapped to take over as COB for NGIO is a great move. A real industry name at the helm. I fully expect the leadership positions to evolve as progress is made and our companies leave dormancy and start to become functioning businesses instead of being in startup mode.
2) I thought Rich and particularly Jason Terrell did a bang-up job with their input on the call. Jason's comment on not really being late to market because the process has "given time to expose the weaknesses and solve them" was priceless. I believe Joe should offload more of future presentations to his extremely capable team and stick to the high-level management items. Rich and Jason's input was a major plus for this call and for GNBT/NGIO.
3) I appreciated Tony D's emphasis on the value of Excellagen's IDIQ (Indefinite Date, Indefinite Quantity) approval from the VA. The VA really wants this for their VIP patients (which is ALL of them), and the authorization of this IDIQ shows that.
4) I'll be looking forward to how quickly they can pull other devices/products out of mothballs and work them into the AZ setup, create an MSO, etc.
5) NGIO IPO has to happen soon. The debt that has been accrued and the dilution that has occurred needs to stop, and this is the item that will put a plug on these issues until we can garner true revenue streams from Excellagen, FL/AZ, and/or the vaccine. June?
6) Gary is The Man, and AltuCell is hanging with us. This is great news. The opportunities with this technology in not only diabetes and La Rhonne's that are currently in the works, but also with the cancer and vaccine potential are amazing.
7) In addition to #6 above, I believe Joe has really held this together with tape, glue, and rubber bands made from his vision and hard work. Not everything has gone well, and there have been some major mistakes. But the Team that Joe has assembled and held together (Dr EvH, Jason, Tony, Rich, etc.) as well as the pieces he has added to the team (Dr Eagle, the SAB, Gary, etc.) are sticking with him despite the hurdles and stumbles. There is definitely something here that has led all of these great scientists to stick with GNBT/NGIO, and that is one of the most compelling reasons I am still here. To this point, go back and listen to Gary brag about the Team at the end of his piece of the call. Truly significant.
Regentys close to securing funding. I doubt this will be as favorable as the Excellagen funding, due to its status in the development stage. But this is a truly remarkable opportunity as well, and I look forward to seeing it advance as well. Outta time. I hope you are all doing well and ready to wait patiently for a bit longer as we see good things bubbling to the surface!
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