A person I know in the financial world once told m
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Posted On: 04/06/2021 8:42:26 AM
A person I know in the financial world once told me that after an offering, you can expect to see a churn of approximately 3x - 4x the number of shares sold in the offering before the stock starts to recover.
The latest offering transpired on 3/15/2021. Verb sold 9,375,000 in the offering. As of close yesterday, and not including after hours volume, we sit between the 3x and 4x mark.
Below is the data from the recent offering and where we stand. Below that I analyze data from the previous offering that took place on 7/24/2020 to see if the 3x - 4x held true. Turns out it was just above the 4x mark for churn, but would consider it in the approximate range and a decent guide of what we can expect.
Please keep in mind this is approximate information and to not use it for your investing purposes, only as general information.
Ok, now the data from the offering from 7/24/2020:
1. 12,545,453 shares sold in the offering
2. I would say the stock did not start moving until 12/4/2020, which is 4.5 months later, but there was much less day to day volume than now. See the below chart where the blue arrow on the left indicates the 7/24/2020 offering and the arrow on the right indicates where I believe the stock started really moving (there was a head fake earlier that did not amount to much).
3. Given that there were more shares in the July 2020 offering and the volume was less, I surmise that the churn time-wise will be much shorter for this March 2021 offering
5. The approximate churn for the 7/24/2020 offering was just over 4X the number of shares sold.
The latest offering transpired on 3/15/2021. Verb sold 9,375,000 in the offering. As of close yesterday, and not including after hours volume, we sit between the 3x and 4x mark.
Below is the data from the recent offering and where we stand. Below that I analyze data from the previous offering that took place on 7/24/2020 to see if the 3x - 4x held true. Turns out it was just above the 4x mark for churn, but would consider it in the approximate range and a decent guide of what we can expect.
Please keep in mind this is approximate information and to not use it for your investing purposes, only as general information.
Ok, now the data from the offering from 7/24/2020:
1. 12,545,453 shares sold in the offering
2. I would say the stock did not start moving until 12/4/2020, which is 4.5 months later, but there was much less day to day volume than now. See the below chart where the blue arrow on the left indicates the 7/24/2020 offering and the arrow on the right indicates where I believe the stock started really moving (there was a head fake earlier that did not amount to much).
3. Given that there were more shares in the July 2020 offering and the volume was less, I surmise that the churn time-wise will be much shorter for this March 2021 offering
5. The approximate churn for the 7/24/2020 offering was just over 4X the number of shares sold.
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