Has anyone figured out using an estimated 25 peopl
Post# of 153982
(Total Views: 440)
Posted On: 03/06/2021 3:06:58 PM
Has anyone figured out using an estimated 25 people passed in the critical 62 which would be patient population. We had last known of 87 total deaths. So 62 good estimate of # that passes if we use 25% mortality in the severe out of the remaining 330 patients it would be broken down into the following
110/ SOC
220/ Leronlimab
If we use 24% which is very conservative of other trials that gives the placebo/SOC them 27 deaths that leaves the leronlimab group of 220 with 33 deaths.
33/220 = 15%
Vs
27/110 = 24.5%
This would be statistically significant endpoint met. Even in the worst case scenario which would be that there was zero effect of leronlimab vs placebo it would even split and we would still have all the amazing data from criticals. If there was zero effect however the DSMC would have shit us down for having no effectiveness. If there wasn’t a good mortality decrease overall we would have been told to add hundreds of more patients to the entire trail. I believe we have much better chance of showing good data in the severe than bad. The shorts are out there in full force trying to state otherwise but they will not give you logical reasons ans estimates like I just did. Matter in fact I don’t see anyone trying to make sense of the severe data not being reported. If it was bad or not good it needs to be released however if it is really good maybe fda asked them to hold off until they are closer to giving EUA. If anyone has better logical estimates of the severe population please post or message me. It’s like most people have completely forgot many people pass away from severe pretty quickly and that leronlimab when given earlier than peoples death beds should actually be more effective than critical not less.
110/ SOC
220/ Leronlimab
If we use 24% which is very conservative of other trials that gives the placebo/SOC them 27 deaths that leaves the leronlimab group of 220 with 33 deaths.
33/220 = 15%
Vs
27/110 = 24.5%
This would be statistically significant endpoint met. Even in the worst case scenario which would be that there was zero effect of leronlimab vs placebo it would even split and we would still have all the amazing data from criticals. If there was zero effect however the DSMC would have shit us down for having no effectiveness. If there wasn’t a good mortality decrease overall we would have been told to add hundreds of more patients to the entire trail. I believe we have much better chance of showing good data in the severe than bad. The shorts are out there in full force trying to state otherwise but they will not give you logical reasons ans estimates like I just did. Matter in fact I don’t see anyone trying to make sense of the severe data not being reported. If it was bad or not good it needs to be released however if it is really good maybe fda asked them to hold off until they are closer to giving EUA. If anyone has better logical estimates of the severe population please post or message me. It’s like most people have completely forgot many people pass away from severe pretty quickly and that leronlimab when given earlier than peoples death beds should actually be more effective than critical not less.
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