Haha, I believe you are right! Here are the num

Haha, I believe you are right!

Here are the numbers I surmised:

62 critical

discharged alive

P 27.8% = 5/18
LL 11.4% = 5/44

LL vs placebo died = 24% difference - absolute or relative?

P 7/18 = 38.8%
LL 13/44 = 29.5%

This is a relative reduction of 9.3/38.8 = 24.0%
Absolute reduction of 9.3%.

If one less P subject and 2 more LL subjects died, then LL worse than P, so not very robust results in that sense. Can see why FDA would want more data for critical subjects.

Still, if these stats hold for larger numbers, then need to treat just 11 critical patients to save one life.

It might be possible to have different numbers too (didn't run all the scenarios), but these fit pretty well.

What we don't know are the numbers for the 322 other subjects in the trial with severe disease. If the above numbers are correct, then with 87 deaths overall (if that holds)/384, and 20 in critical, that leaves 57/322 deaths in severe group, or just 17.7%. What is the breakdown of placebo versus leronlimab there?

Looking forward to seeing the full data set for CD12 - though we never did get it for CD10 yet - still waiting on the forthcoming publication...