Alas, you're probably right and I think the reason

Alas, you're probably right and I think the reasons you give are for the most part correct. But don't completely write The Donald off. Trump is a completely different force from what we are used to seeing and it could be that the usual laws of physics/politics just don't apply to him. I guess a lot will depend on the economy, which I think the dimmys will tank, as well as a number of other things. These are some strange times!