Maybe its not 87, but 87 should be in the ballpark

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Maybe its not 87, but 87 should be in the ballpark unless many of the deaths are outside of 28 days

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I've been giving this quite a bit of thought. I have been "pitting" the 30%+ mortality figures against the potential of many of the deaths being outside of 28 days. In my mind only one of the two could be true, but it is possible that both are true.

We could see 30% placebo mortality inside of 28 days AND see increasing mortality in either or both groups outside of 28 days. A few scenarios:

1) Both groups show an increase in mortality after 28 days. In which case an argument would be made to provide additional doses of LL. We cannot do this in the trial setting, but the FDA and clinicians no doubt would allow this once EUA is issued.

2) Placebo Group shows more mortality outside of 28 days. This just strengthens the case for LL.

3) Leronlimab group shows more mortality outside of 28 days. I doubt this is the case, but this would essentially infer that LL delayed mortality, which again would build a case for additional doses.