Judging the forecasts: As discussed, the first
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Posted On: 02/14/2021 2:02:30 PM
Judging the forecasts:
As discussed, the first criteria for most accurate forecast the sum of the absolute errors in the two arms. The tie-breaker is most accurate relative risk.
We have two cases of identical forecasts. If either of those wins, the two entrants will estimate the time of the inevitable Adam Fartstein "this didn't happen," tweet, with the closest winning the Ohmie.
Now that the data summary is out, I am not accepting further entries.
As discussed, the first criteria for most accurate forecast the sum of the absolute errors in the two arms. The tie-breaker is most accurate relative risk.
We have two cases of identical forecasts. If either of those wins, the two entrants will estimate the time of the inevitable Adam Fartstein "this didn't happen," tweet, with the closest winning the Ohmie.
Now that the data summary is out, I am not accepting further entries.
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