I'm feeling pretty good about the trial.
At 28 days lets call it 82 deaths, with placebo 46 and LL 36.
At 45 days add an additional 10 deaths for a total of 92 deaths, placebo 53 and LL 39.
My optimism stems from more detailed information about the patient population in the recent Recovery/tocilizumab trial. It's been noted on this board and elsewhere that the placebo arm of that trial had a 33% mortality rate. Given the 22% mortality rate of both arms of the CD12 trial, most consider this comparison quite favorable for leronlimab. But to my eyes it looks like a significant majority of the patients in the Recovery trial would be considered severe rather than critical. Check out this description of the tocilizumab trial participants from an article on Michael Olsterholm's CIDRAP website dated Feb 11th 2021--
"Among the 4,116 participants, 562 (14%) received invasive mechanical ventilation, 1,686 (41%) received noninvasive respiratory support, and 1,868 (45%) received no respiratory support except supplemental oxygen. All patients had low oxygen levels and signs of inflammation".
I realize that comparing patient populations from different trials is like comparing apples and oranges... but my feeling from all I have read about the CD12 trial is that our patients were significantly sicker. It certainly seems that at a minimum 45% of the tocilizumab trial participants would be considered "severe" if they "received no respiratory support except supplemental oxygen." What to make of the 41% of the patients who received "noninvasive respiratory support?" That doesn't seem to rise to the level of "critical" as far as I understand it.
Perhaps I am missing something here... Please weight in. But given this suggestive information I am going out on a limb and guessing the CD12 placebo mortality rate will end up being much closer to 40% rather than 33%. That is the basis for my optimistic prediction above.
Finally, as others here have expressed, it's a little sobering to think about the real human beings behind the numbers. At least their deaths contributed to some larger good.
At 28 days lets call it 82 deaths, with placebo 46 and LL 36.
At 45 days add an additional 10 deaths for a total of 92 deaths, placebo 53 and LL 39.
My optimism stems from more detailed information about the patient population in the recent Recovery/tocilizumab trial. It's been noted on this board and elsewhere that the placebo arm of that trial had a 33% mortality rate. Given the 22% mortality rate of both arms of the CD12 trial, most consider this comparison quite favorable for leronlimab. But to my eyes it looks like a significant majority of the patients in the Recovery trial would be considered severe rather than critical. Check out this description of the tocilizumab trial participants from an article on Michael Olsterholm's CIDRAP website dated Feb 11th 2021--
"Among the 4,116 participants, 562 (14%) received invasive mechanical ventilation, 1,686 (41%) received noninvasive respiratory support, and 1,868 (45%) received no respiratory support except supplemental oxygen. All patients had low oxygen levels and signs of inflammation".
I realize that comparing patient populations from different trials is like comparing apples and oranges... but my feeling from all I have read about the CD12 trial is that our patients were significantly sicker. It certainly seems that at a minimum 45% of the tocilizumab trial participants would be considered "severe" if they "received no respiratory support except supplemental oxygen." What to make of the 41% of the patients who received "noninvasive respiratory support?" That doesn't seem to rise to the level of "critical" as far as I understand it.
Perhaps I am missing something here... Please weight in. But given this suggestive information I am going out on a limb and guessing the CD12 placebo mortality rate will end up being much closer to 40% rather than 33%. That is the basis for my optimistic prediction above.
Finally, as others here have expressed, it's a little sobering to think about the real human beings behind the numbers. At least their deaths contributed to some larger good.
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